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Resume of US Economy and Job Market?

 
Greenhorn
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Hi All,
According to cnn "Nasdaq shines on Wall St. Ahead of holiday weekend, technology index posts best point gain in 2001" http://cnnfn.cnn.com/2001/04/12/markets/markets_newyork/
I have some questions regarding this news:
1. Do this reflect that slow down of US economy is finish?
2. Approximatelly how much time it will for economy take to go back to its normal position?
3. What effect it will have on Job market and can we expect that demand of IT professionals will increase again?
4. Approximate how much time it will take for companies calling H1 visa holders to US? (which was stopped due to slow economy)

Thanks
 
Ranch Hand
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Unfortunately, the slow down has only just begun. Just as the stock market started to drop a year ago when employment was still strong, it will be a long time before employment demand reaches a bottom.
Some people feel that the economy will hit a bottom by summer and then go back up again. I don't agree with this view. I think the economy will hit a bottom by the end of this year, but then be very anemic and weak for at least two more years, with rising unemployment across the whole economy for at least another year- into year 2003. The economy may enter technical recession or not, even with very slow growth, employment will be soft.
Th basic problems with the US Economy are:
(1) Way too much debt by consumers and corporations. People can't borrow much more to keep proping up the economy.
(2) Too much capacity and over-investment. The "bubble" convinced companies to expand (by borrowing) like mad. That demand for goods and services is vanishing, leaving far too much infrastructure designed to supply that demand that no longer exists.
Consequence... lots of business failures and unemployment, until things rebalance.
When unemployment hits 6, 7, or higher percent, look for the H1 program to be changed back to a Ph.D only type system.
Let's hope I'm wrong!


[This message has been edited by M Prembroke (edited April 13, 2001).]
 
Noor Mustafa
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Originally posted by M Prembroke:

Let's hope I'm wrong!


I hope so!

[This message has been edited by Noor Mustafa (edited April 15, 2001).]
 
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