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Today, after Job report was announced, a couple of CNN analyst said, that bad economy-wise worst is yet ahead of us, and all signs are show that clearly we're heading into ressesion.
What do you think? If that's true(I hope not), what's gonna happen?
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It's 3 AM so I can ramble a little...
I think a recession is defined by at least 2 quarters of negative growth of the Gross National Product (GNP). I recall reading that GNP grew at a rate of 2% for 1Q2001. That might be the third quarter of negative growth in a row. Unlike historic precedents, we're not experiencing a negative growth rate because the U.S. economy was booming outside of the norm for so long (6% annual growth). Technically, we're in a recession.
I think it's a lot more hype that fact. Unemployment is still historically low at 4.5%. When I took Macro and Micro economics in the late 1980s I remember textbooks that debated whether frictional unemployment could drop below 6-8% unadjusted for seasonal workers (that means agriculture). Obviously they did not see the technical revolution that was headed our way in the 1990s.
There's a retraction in markets that were over expanded. Even the new economy has to play by the rules of supply and demand.
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