Article: Third-quarter business growth best performance in nearly 20 years

[Mark Herschberg]

Third-quarter business growth best performance in nearly 20 years (Boston Globe)
WASHINGTON (AP) The U.S. economy, propelled by tax cuts and low interest rates, roared ahead at an 8.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the best showing in nearly 20 years, while Americans' incomes and spending both showed healthy gains in November.

[Pradeep bhatt]

That is good news .

[Rufus BugleWeed]

Statistically how many quarters does employment lag the rest of the economy?

[Mark Herschberg]

Well, the article goes on to talk about how employment is still down, despite the continued high growth (although it hints at it picking up).
--Mark

[Axel Janssen]

so US again locomotive of world economy.
Countries like France and especially Germany should really start to ask themselves how the US gets those revive-economy-capacities.
At least since november our politicians show some signs that now they are really starting to switch from permanent analysis mode towards really doing some usefull reforms.
Hope for an even stronger Euro. Otherwise good exports might dilute reform impetus one more time.
Last week back from Dresden I stoped for a cofee in one of those towns in the east with >25% unemployment. I felt ashamed of german reunification. You can smell the subventioniced desperation there.
[ December 23, 2003: Message edited by: Axel Janssen ]

[Al Newman]

Originally posted by Axel Janssen:

so US again locomotive of world economy.
Countries like France and especially Germany should really start to ask themselves how the US gets those revive-economy-capacities.
At least since november our politicians show some signs that now they are really starting to switch from permanent analysis mode towards really doing some usefull reforms.

I see some signs in Germany with the Schroeder reforms. Just a first step of course. Germany's plight reminds me intensely of the 'stagflation' economic crisis in the US during the late 70's. It took new thinking and a new President to get the US out of that one. But Carter made a start in some small ways before Reagan came in and shook things up.
What I'm afraid of is that the EU and it's 'processes' will keep Germany from doing what needs to be done. I hope not and wish Germany well. It's tough, dude....
France I'm less sure about. From my POV Chirac looks a lot like Louis XVth Apres moi, Le Deluge. I suppose every French President tends to look that way toward the end of his tenure. With the political fracturing shown in the last election perhaps France has a chance of electing an iconoclast next time around.

Originally posted by Axel Janssen:
Hope for an even stronger Euro. Otherwise good exports might dilute reform impetus one more time.
Last week back from Dresden I stoped for a cofee in one of those towns in the east with >25% unemployment. I felt ashamed of german reunification. You can smell the subventioniced desperation there.

I doubt a weaker Euro will delay things for long if at all, but I understand your despair. In 1979 I thought that Jimmy Carter had finally grasped that inflation had to be fought but then he eased monetary policy during the 1980 election. I voted for the first time in 1980 (for Reagan) because I could not stand the thought of 4 more years of Carter. Later I learned to like Reagan, but in 1980 he was merely the lesser of two evils for me.
I wouldn't be ashamed of German Unification, Axel, but merely of the way it was botched. Buying able-bodied people off with free money is almost always bad in the long term. You rob them of part of their being by taking away their economic function.
The answer is reforma and more reform. Schroeder started out getting as much as he could. If there is improvement he or his successor can use that
success as a compelling argument for more reforms. And so on.
Good luck to Germany, I say. Even if they don't like us Yankee Warmongering swine much.....

[Axel Janssen]

Alfred Neumann without E.,
thanks for the kind words.

Originally posted by Alfred Neumann:

Even if they don't like us Yankee Warmongering swine much.....

Oh no. Americans.
And that after Map, Ravish and me trying so hard explaining diference between question some little aspects of american politics and full blown anti-americanism.
Full blown anti-americanism is an often reliable indicator for the general stupidity of a person.
There are some factors which indicates that something is a bit wrong long run in this country:
- we have clear indication that the quality of our education has constantly gotten worse since 1960ies. Clearly not in all sectors, but generally.
- very low birth rate.
Maybe we are in a phase similar to the pre-Thatcher and pre-Reagan years.
Schroeder isn't a politician with much own agenda. But he has quite good political instincs. He knows that the facts are pressing him towards reforms. This helps, because his own socialdemocratic voter base is traditionally quite reluctant towards the market oriented reforms the country seems to need.
Currently reforms are made in a constant negotiation process between opposition and government. Has to do with strong influence of the laender (states) in federal politics.
It really has gotten tough for quite a few people, though we might a little tend to exagerations.
Currently expectations are improving a little, but an politically interesting year is waiting for us.
Axel
[ December 29, 2003: Message edited by: Axel Janssen ]

[Joe Pluta]

Full blown americanism is an often reliable indicator for the general stupidity of a person.
I guess that depends on your definition of "full blown", Axel, but I'm about as pro-American as they come, and if you want to call me stupid, then you've got one hellacious fight on your hands.
If by "full blown" you mean that someone who ignores the problems in America and only sees the good things, then yes, that person has a slanted viewpoint and problem isn't terribly realistic. But on the other side of the coin, the person who constantly slams America without considering all the good we do is guilty of just as "full blown" an anti-American viewpoint.
And frankly, a LOT more "full blown" anti-American posters than "full blown" pro-American. In fact, I'd challenge you to list a single person on MD who consistently posts pro-American opinions that is NOT willing to admit to some of our faults. Whereas there are quite a few people who post here who pretty much NEVER have ANYTHING good to say about America. Those are your "full blown" anti-Americans, and as I said, they heavily outweigh the "full blown" pro-Americans.
It is possible to be pro-American and be a rational, intelligent individual. And out in the real world, there are quite a few of us. In forums like this, we're sometimes not the easiest people to get along with, but that's because of the overwhelming number of irrational anti-American comments we see.
Joe

[Alfred Neese]

Originally posted by Axel Janssen:

Full blown americanism is an often reliable indicator for the general stupidity of a person.

Full-blown anything is sometimes a reliable indicator of the general stupidity of a person. Though not always.
I usually feel that the people who compare Bush to a monkey reveal far more about themself than about Bush.....
[ December 29, 2003: Message edited by: Alfred Neese ]

[Mark Herschberg]

Given the temperature of some recent discussions I'd just like to remind everyone that while the job market and tangential topics (like economic policy) are appropriate for this forum, there's a very fine line beyond which lies inappropriate topics (the recent few posts on "Americanism" are dancing on that line).
--Mark

[Joe Pluta]

there's a very fine line beyond which lies inappropriate topics (the recent few posts on "Americanism" are dancing on that line).
Message received and understood, mon capitan!
(Actually, because of the content, I thought we were actually in MD... mea culpa.)
Joe
[ December 29, 2003: Message edited by: Joe Pluta ]

[Axel Janssen]

sorry for creating confusion.
THIS WAS MY SPELLING MISTAKE.
I wanted to say:
Full blown anti-americanism is an often reliable indicator for the general stupidity of a person.
I corrected above. If you look at the context, you see that its fits much better and that's what I wanted to say.
Its more in synch too with my other contributions about the topic.
will improve check reading quality management next time.
[ December 29, 2003: Message edited by: Axel Janssen ]

[Tony Collins]

Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:
Well, the article goes on to talk about how employment is still down, despite the continued high growth (although it hints at it picking up).
--Mark

Well maybe this is due to outsourcing. What is the point of living in a country that is doing well economically though has no quality work. Surely this type of economy can not work in the long term. Who's going to buy products ? Can someone explain this to me ?
Tony

[SJ Adnams]

Well maybe this is due to outsourcing
Could be,.. another statistic ( as in lies, damn lies, and statistics) thats often misrepresented is 'per capita' GDP vs 'per worker' GDP, much of America's double digit growth from decades back was derived from the increase in the female workforce rather than the productivity gains of the 'average' worker.

[stara szkapa]

Originally posted by Tony Collins:
What is the point of living in a country that is doing well economically though has no quality work.

Coding is not considered quality work. It is coal mining of the present times. It pays well today, but in the future rates will go down. Work itself is stressful, unstable, unhealthy and antisocial. In the long run society has no interest to keep these jobs, unless it is absolutely necessary.

[Thomas Paul]

This has been a jobless recovery. The recovery has been built on the back of increased productivity (read as: employees working longer hours for less pay).

[Tim Holloway]

Originally posted by Thomas Paul:
This has been a jobless recovery. The recovery has been built on the back of increased productivity (read as: employees working longer hours for less pay).

I've also heard is described as the "your job is now worth less" recovery. Which is what happened to me.

[Alfred Neese]

Originally posted by Axel Janssen:
sorry for creating confusion.
THIS WAS MY SPELLING MISTAKE.
I wanted to say:
Full blown anti-americanism is an often reliable indicator for the general stupidity of a person.
I corrected above. If you look at the context, you see that its fits much better and that's what I wanted to say.
Its more in synch too with my other contributions about the topic.

Yes it does, Axel. I worked in Stuttgart for 3 months in 1999 and was very impressed with the transport system. And the way they had reconstructed the downtown.
To fully appreciate that transport system one needs to have lived in the UK for a while. The S-bahn was late 3 minutes. Once in three months. The typical British train is 'on-time' if it is less than 5 minutes late.
On the other hand there was the Alcatel manager who informed me that an analog telephone line was working because 'Deutsch Telekom installed that line and Deutsch Telekom does not make mistakes'. DT has repealed the laws of nature, Mein Herr?
I didn't actually say that of course; there was no point. I continued using my hotel phone line and charging Alcatel for the expense...
So I don't know about Germany.

[Axel Janssen]

Originally posted by Alfred Neese:

To fully appreciate that transport system one needs to have lived in the UK for a while. The S-bahn was late 3 minutes. Once in three months. The typical British train is 'on-time' if it is less than 5 minutes late.

Deutsche Bundesbahn became worse in 2001/2. Lots of people were complaining. Currently they seem to improve again. I use a lot Cologne - Hannover. And some Hannover - Berlin or Hannover - Dresden. Never were late more than 5 minutes. And its fast 100-180 km/h on average for whole track. Coffee in train is too expensive (2.60 Euro). You get great cellular phone connections and you can plug in your lapptop.

Originally posted by Alfred Neese:

On the other hand there was the Alcatel manager who informed me that an analog telephone line was working because 'Deutsch Telekom installed that line and Deutsch Telekom does not make mistakes'. DT has repealed the laws of nature, Mein Herr?
I didn't actually say that of course; there was no point. I continued using my hotel phone line and charging Alcatel for the expense...

I am heavily suspecting that we have more of those bogus processes, often very elaborated on paper, but which simply does not work in practice. Especially in bigger organizations.
I could tell a lot of stories about testing procedures which demand lots of burocracy without testing anything or "cooking receipts" of a beloved OS-390 department. With the exception of my personal ally I found there after some time, they know only 3 sentences ("this is not my job. You have to ask x". "Here is a cooking receipt how to do it yourself.", "Oh, those points were missing on the cooking receipt, but why don't you know that step (OS-390)".
You used the most important expert patterns how to survive corporate Germany:
Don't get angry (I had a steep learning curve for that) and search for a viable solution on your own. If things really do not work out, I tell the guy in my most friendly way that if there is no solution I am going to search solution by asking his boss for a talk (it might be difficult for foreigners to find the proper way for that strategy). Things use to get resolved quickly then. If there are really big problems in projects where different externals and internal departments cooperate, bigger organization do have special conflict resolution staff, with which I have made very good experience so far.
[ December 31, 2003: Message edited by: Axel Janssen ]

[Alfred Neese]

Originally posted by Axel Janssen:

I could tell a lot of stories about testing procedures which demand lots of burocracy without testing anything or "cooking receipts" of a beloved OS-390 department. With the exception of my personal ally I found there after some time, they know only 3 sentences ("this is not my job. You have to ask x". "Here is a cooking receipt how to do it yourself.", "Oh, those points were missing on the cooking receipt, but why don't you know that step (OS-390)".

My first week in Stuttgart was a horror show. I had to install and test a product my company had recently released. I was assured that it was 'easy'.
Well there were unstated dependencies, such as the need for an Oracle client installed to configure (but not run) the software. No telephone or internet connection in the server room. No cellular phone coverage. The only Oracle manual was for version 7.3 (we were on Oracle 8.1) and in German! Needless to say there was no Oracle DBA available at Alcatel.
Well I tried anyway . The chap who came after said he was 'shocked' to see how far I'd gotten. And Alcatel complained vociferously and got me screwed. Now I see where I went wrong. I ought to have told them:
"Installing Oracle is not my job. Call in your Oracle DBA and phone me when he is finished."
My own company was at least half the problem . Another problem is that (as I later learned) my own managers (British) regarded me as a Yankee interloper and had wanted no part of me. So I tended not to get the information I needed......
Professional Services. Never again. Give me software development every time....

Originally posted by Axel Janssen:

You used the most important expert patterns how to survive corporate Germany:
Don't get angry (I had a steep learning curve for that) and search for a viable solution on your own. If things really do not work out, I tell the guy in my most friendly way that if there is no solution I am going to search solution by asking his boss for a talk (it might be difficult for foreigners to find the proper way for that strategy). Things use to get resolved quickly then. If there are really big problems in projects where different externals and internal departments cooperate, bigger organization do have special conflict resolution staff, with which I have made very good experience so far.

I don't know what could have made things better. PArt of the problem is that I was in the wrong job, part that everyone was trying to move too quickly. I'm not inclined to judge Germany too severely on this basis alone.
The Germans I met did not seem to value hands-on skills highly at all. There were many more German 'architects' and 'lead designers' than 'coders'. The coders tended to be Eastern Europeans or Irish and their prospects for promotion were minimal at best. Tons of managers and staff people of various kinds.
The other thing which blew my mind was when (after 3 weeks in Stuttgart) the entire design team left for a 6 week vacation and was replaced by a second team which had just come back from their 6 week vacation. With absolutely no handoff or coordination I could see. We effectively ended up with two of everything. Which is NOT twice as good as one, BTW. More like half as good....
[ December 31, 2003: Message edited by: Alfred Neese ]

[SJ Adnams]

This has been a jobless recovery. The recovery has been built on the back of increased productivity
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Note that the unemployment has gone down only 100,000 yet the employment has gone up over 1m from sept-nov.
Now look at the section on "Indexes of aggregate weekly hours".

[Tim Holloway]

Originally posted by Simon Lee:
This has been a jobless recovery. The recovery has been built on the back of increased productivity
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Note that the unemployment has gone down only 100,000 yet the employment has gone up over 1m from sept-nov.
Now look at the section on "Indexes of aggregate weekly hours".

Well, we know about lies, damn lies and... However, if you hired 900,000 people fresh into the workforce, you could pull this off, I think. A lot of people just graduated from college this past month, poor slobs.
Of course, playing the numbers game: I read this morning that unemployment filings have dropped to their lowest level in years. But by now I think we've all wised up the the difference bewtween unemployment filings and actual unemployment levels.
Especially since a congressional extension of unemployment benefits was not renewed (though I don't know if that happened within the measured timeframe).