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Moving Our Economy Offshore

 
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February 18, 2004
"Moving Our Economy Offshore"
http://www.vdare.com/roberts/economy_offshore.htm
By Paul Craig Roberts, who was Associate Editor of the WSJ editorial page, 1978-80, and columnist for ���Political Economy.��� During 1981-82 he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. He is the author of Supply-Side Revolution: An Insider���s Account of Policymaking in Washington.


The Bureau of Labor Statistics offers no evidence to support economists' claims that outsourcing production to Asia creates new and better jobs in the United States. On Feb. 11, the BLS released its 10-year projections of U.S. job growth by industry and occupation. Missing in the BLS lineup are the high-tech and knowledge jobs that economists have been falsely promising us are our rewards for losing our manufacturing jobs.

Are you ready for this? The BLS says that the bulk of U.S. job growth over the next decade will be in low-paid nontradable services that do not require a college education.
Here is America's job future for the next 10 years:

***waiters and waitresses;

***janitors and cleaners;

***food preparation;

***nursing aides, orderlies and attendants;

*** cashiers

***customer service representatives;

***retail salespersons;

***registered nurses;

***general and operational managers;

***postsecondary teachers.
If the BLS projections are correct, the United States won't long remain a high-tech, high-wage economy.

When the dollar collapses, Americans won't be able to afford those "cheap foreign imports" for which we are giving up our good jobs.

 
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What is your point?
And where does that leave the Brits?
Are pound is going strong!???
 
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The point is that the average wage being earned is only going to go down.
Who needs the middle class anyway?
 
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Originally posted by Natalie Kopple:

Here is America's job future for the next 10 years:
*** waiters and waitresses;
*** janitors and cleaners;
*** food preparation;
*** nursing aides, orderlies and attendants;
*** cashiers
*** customer service representatives;
*** retail salespersons;
*** registered nurses;
*** general and operational managers;
*** postsecondary teachers.


That's what I figured. After all, we all know americans are lazy fat and stupid - all they're good for are blue-collar type jobs. Hey, I guess the japanese were correct after all :-)
Well, I can't wait until the Chinese and the Indians take the mantel of innovation and technology. We all know that they're hard working and smarter than the Americans. Well, that's what they are saying... just like the Japanese 20 years ago ;-)
 
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>The point is that the average wage being earned is only going to go down.
>Who needs the middle class anyway?

Does the average wage go down or does the economy split between haves and havenots? i.e. Some programmers will continue to make 100K+ whereas others go home.
 
Jason Cox
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Originally posted by A C Toyota:
Does the average wage go down or does the economy split between haves and havenots? i.e. Some programmers will continue to make 100K+ whereas others go home.


That's an oversimplification.
It's downward pressure on wages except for those who are high enough to have power over those wages. In other words, your 100K developer will probably see a flattening of his salary instead of the gradual increase most people expect.
Which is one reason why I don't understand how more people aren't concerned. We're basically shutting doors for people to move up in the US. The American dream is being denied more and more people, and the attitude has become "Well, so what?". Yet at the same time I see the local economy getting hit hard because it no longer enjoys the income that so many tech workers used to bring in.
I'm concerned even though I have a job, and a job that actually benefits from outsourcing in many ways. I don't want to see outsourcing go away, I just want to see some common sense applied to it.
 
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Hi,
If you could understand the definition of the word programmer, then you could see are you continue to make 100K or not.
My definition of programmer is a digital language writer hired to satisfy a certain specification from the user. 100K is an usurp. If the market demand that much, it will fall right after.
If you have a certain imagination combines with the knowledge in technologies, you will come up with your own specs and product. You will then sell it. Then you are worth more than 100K. It would rank you with the same level like the guy invented the Netscape. I never look at him as a programmer. For he is an inventor.
Regards,
MCao
 
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http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_09/b3872003_mz001.htm
I don't entirely agree with it, since it implies the usual assumption that only Western Countries can innovate, but FWIW.
 
Matt Cao
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Hi Tim,
I like the link for it confirms my own made up programmer definition. I am not far from the wisdom because my definition is ranked number 6 on the totem pole. The others are not programmers.
What is FWIW standed for?
Regards,
MCao
 
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Originally posted by Tim Holloway:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_09/b3872003_mz001.htm
I don't entirely agree with it, since it implies the usual assumption that only Western Countries can innovate, but FWIW.


Excellent link. Thanks Tim.
 
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Originally posted by Matt Cao:
What is FWIW standed for?
Regards,
MCao


For What Its Worth
 
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Originally posted by Tim Holloway:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_09/b3872003_mz001.htm
I don't entirely agree with it, since it implies the usual assumption that only Western Countries can innovate, but FWIW.


Tim,
Not only do I disagree with it I think this is a really cheap shot! Firstly the article gets into total BS about cultural differences. Then tone almost says that programming jobs are elite and rightfully belong in the west. This is the worst write-up I have ever seen on outsourcing! I expected better from BW but *sigh*
 
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Woohoo! According to the Pyramid, I'm close to the top!
The problem with "Consultants" is that it doesn't really cover the range of what they do, or what the fundamental differences between a Consultant and a Contractor is. In all honesty, I'd say I'm doing a mix of 3,5, and 6 on the chart. Most architects I know are peers of project managers and are often paid the same way. Exactly what kind of funkiness did they use to figure out this pyramid exactly?
 
Tim Holloway
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Originally posted by Falana Dhimkana:

Tim,
Not only do I disagree with it I think this is a really cheap shot! Firstly the article gets into total BS about cultural differences. Then tone almost says that programming jobs are elite and rightfully belong in the west. This is the worst write-up I have ever seen on outsourcing! I expected better from BW but *sigh*


I won't discount culture. There's enough difference between New York and Florida, though I won't say that either is inherently superior. I also think that some "culture" is more of a mindset and perceptions of it may be out of date.
Personally, I view this stuff realizing that it has been said for probably longer than I've been alive that economics is a "science" where you can be totally incompetent and still be a success. Anybody remember Henry (a/k/a "Dr. Doom") Kaufman? When he predicted interest rates would go up and they repeatedly went up, he was a Guru. One day he predicted interest rates would go up and they didn't. He virtually disappeared from the face of the Earth. Or, to take another observation often applied to economists, even a broken watch gets the right time twice a day (providing it's not a digital one, anyway ).
Do you like the pyramid concept - as opposed to the way they drew it? Or would you prefer another way of looking at tings?
 
Falana Dhimkana
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Originally posted by Tim Holloway:

I won't discount culture. There's enough difference between New York and Florida, though I won't say that either is inherently superior. I also think that some "culture" is more of a mindset and perceptions of it may be out of date.


Tim,
I can understand differences in accent and work culture can impact business but what does Deepa's(one of the characters in the story) arranged marriage have anything to do with the business? Also, white-collar job loss worries in US are understandable but trying to pit workers from different parts of world against each other is simply deplorable.
 
Don't get me started about those stupid light bulbs.
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