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GOOD NEWS ON JOBS . Or not.

 
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GOOD NEWS ON JOBS: Or not. It depends on your perspective:
"Any step forward in the job market is good news for America's workers, but let's be clear: we still have a long way to go to get America working again," said Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), in a statement. "America is still in the worst job recovery since the Great Depression, with 2.2 million private-sector jobs lost in the Bush presidency, 8.1 million Americans still looking for work, and long-term unemployment at the highest level in twenty years."
As one might infer from Kerry's statistics (which are not the only ones out there), it will be almost impossible for Bush to head into the elections with less than a 1 million net private-sector job-loss on his hands. But if the economy really does add another 1.2 million jobs before November, I don't think it will matter what Kerry says.
 
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Those stats don't take into account how many people were added to the workforce due to population growth. What should matter is the unemployment RATE (percentages). He hasn't quoted that in a while. I wonder why.
 
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Of course they don't. Kerry would hardly show statistics in a way that make president Bush look good.
His entire rant is just a cheap little lie to attack the president in an attempt to get a few more votes.
In reality the growth of the job market in real terms has never been larger than in the last half year or so and unemployment (while not at an alltime low) is down quite a bit.
This of course doesn't affect the white-collar workers being outsourced to Asia/Pac region, but it does at last (after 20 years) offer some hope for the masses of unemployed blue-collar workers that they might get a job again.
Quite a few of the jobs lost during the last 4 years were lost due to tax and other laws implemented during the Clinton era which caused a lot of bankruptcies and caused other companies to flee for cheaper shores.
Kerry of course would never admit that, as it places his own ideas in a bad light.
He would also not mention that it took president Bush and his team only 3 years to reverse the worst economic downturn of the last 70 years and get the economy growing again in under 2 years from the point the downturn stopped.
That too would make the president Bush look good.
He'll also never mention himself opposing just about every single plan that turned out to have a positive effect on the economy.
 
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Pure political commentary removed for being off topic.
--Moderator

[ May 08, 2004: Message edited by: Mark Herschberg ]
 
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Pure political commentary removed for being off topic.
--Moderator

[ May 08, 2004: Message edited by: Mark Herschberg ]
 
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Please note that I removed a few posts. As per the standing policy in this forum, economic discussions are welcome, and we recognize that they do touch on politics. Discussions about candidates economic policies are fine.
However, opinions on politicians in general, and their general policies should not be discussed in this forum. Yes, I recognize that things are interconnected (e.g. foreign policy effects oil prices which effects economic growth), but such open ended discussions would quickly turn this forum into another Meaningless Drivel.
I dislike using such heavy handed measures as modifying posts, but given how heated political discussions have become in other threads, I wanted to nip this thing in the bud.--Mark
 
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What type of jobs? From what I hear it is mostly self-employment and low paying jobs which is not very good news.
 
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Incredibly rude and bizzare political commentary removed for being off topic.
--Immoderator
[ May 10, 2004: Message edited by: Don Stadler ]
 
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If I were the cynical type, I'd draw the conclusion that it's OK to bash Democrats but bashing Bush gets you "Pure political commentary removed for being off topic."


My own take is that I haven't seen a whole lot of difference in the deterioration of the role of employee from Bush I to Clinton to Bush II other than we started with "permatemping" and moved to offshoring with a brief orgy of "dot-com" overlaying it. I was reflecting on this the other day when someone near me mentioned a company's "pension plan". Pension Plans are pretty much obsolete - they assume that you'll be with an employer long enough to be pensioned off, and even the CEO rarely does that anymore.
It's nice to see hiring finally on the rise. I hope I never spend 2+ years unemployed again.
Two questions remain, however:
1. Now that the "jobless" recovery is over, is this true recovery or the "job-is-worth-less" recovery that's been bruited about? It's going to make a big difference in how far and how fast the economy can grow.
2. At the same time, we're seeing a pullback from a lot of the more extreme forms of offshoring in IT. This could be because IT didn't offshore as well as had been hoped or it could be a retrenchment similar to what happened in manufacturing. Which? One means we can start breathing freely again. The other means we're in the eye of the hurricane and need to make preparations before the other side of the storm hits.
My spending habits have changed radically. I'm spending a lot right now while I have an income again replacing things that I normally would be repairing. The reason being that if we go into another downturn I don't want to be sitting around with no money and all my appliance broken. I buy things that are more expensive because they're durable. This, of course, means that I'll be spending less over time even though I 'm spending more right now because the items won't wear out as fast. Which isn't a bad idea, even though it does go counter to the American (everything's disposable) Way.
I also am avoiding subscription services such as cell phones and cable TV and other things that cost an arm and a leg to shut off whe you have no income to pay that bill every month.
I'm making fewer impulse purchases. Again. It took 5 years to get into an "impulse" mode after my last bout of unemployment (7 months in 1991). You can just imagine how long it's likely to get into that mood after having sat out 28 months.
Forget about the new car. I'm saving hundreds/month by using alternatives. The image of Success can go hang. You want to see how successful I am, come take a look at the new dishwasher. It's not made by GE, BTW. Ditto for being an early adopter for plasma TV. Someone else can pay to work the bugs out of them. If I'm still employed when they're proven durable, then I'll go out an d buy one.
Maybe it's just me, but this last recession has been more traumatic for me than all the previous ones put together. I'm glad things are finally picking up - especially since the "recession" as officially defined ended almost 2 years ago now and we're long overdue for a job market recovery. But I'm not ready to go running around wildly spending money just yet.
[ May 10, 2004: Message edited by: Tim Holloway ]
 
Mark Herschberg
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Originally posted by Tim Holloway:
If I were the cynical type, I'd draw the conclusion that it's OK to bash Democrats but bashing Bush gets you "Pure political commentary removed for being off topic."


I know you were just making a wry comment Tim, but I don't want anyone to misunderstand what happened so I'm going to add another comment.
The first comment in this thread, while about Kerry's policies, is restricted to jobs and the economy, which are fair game ofr this forum. The removed posts were general comments about Bush and/or comments on his non-economic policies. Given the trouble we've had lately in Meaningless Drivel, I want to draw as clear a line as possible here.
--Mark
 
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The latest unemployment numbers last week revealed that hiring was widespread across a lot of sectors, including professional. I wonder how many of these professional jobs were in IT? If anyone knows or would like to comment, please provide your insight.
 
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I was talking to a friend at the weekend. We discussed what happens to the economy when all those developers drop out of the industry and earn 30-40% of their salary elsewhere. What are the knock-on effects in the economy when all that spending power goes? Likewise when someone gets back into IT after months of unemployment and decides that they will spend as little as possible of their salary.
These things have a serious effect on the economy.
 
Tim Holloway
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Originally posted by Steven Broadbent:
I was talking to a friend at the weekend. We discussed what happens to the economy when all those developers drop out of the industry and earn 30-40% of their salary elsewhere. What are the knock-on effects in the economy when all that spending power goes? Likewise when someone gets back into IT after months of unemployment and decides that they will spend as little as possible of their salary.
These things have a serious effect on the economy.


In my case I stayed in the industry but lost about 10%. But it was the 10% that dropped me out of the Big Screen TV and book-a-honeymoon-cruise <irony>It was the morning after my bride-to-be and I were planning a honeymoon complete with Caribbean cruise that I got laid off</irony>
No, we didn't take the cruise. If I even sugest taking a cruise, my wife goes crazy now.
I've heard 12% was the average wage drop over the last 2 years, but that info is getting pretty stale and recoveries do have the effect of adjusting such matters.
On a more positive note, for the first time in a long time, the local fishwrap was advertising for programmers this last Sunday. Junior ones, but it's at least a start. We had a brief blip like that back a year or so ago, but hopefully this time it's for real. It's been over a month since I've heard of any massive local layoffs.
 
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