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Is there another crash round the corner

 
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I have been for a number of interviews, I was told it was urgent and for most of these interviews made it through to the final round.

Then nothing no feedback the companies wont say yes or no. Talking to the IT recruitment agencies they have told me that other companies have slowed right down. They all have a number of clients waiting on feedback.

From my experience in the city I know your average CEO has the mentality and courage of a panic stricken sheep. It only takes one sheep to run and all the rest panic and follow.

Tony
 
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Hi !

I frankly believe that very simply US presidential election frozes many things, including enthousiasm for hiring, this is very usual in many other countries including France. Things will get better anyway in employment field after this election.

Best regards.
 
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I think that the main thing is that everyone here just lacks confidence. Although we have our share of people who say things are just great and getting better by the day, the actions tend to indicate a lot of people afraid to lay out too much money for fear that they may not have a job in 6 months. Or, if they do, it will pay considerably less.

Conventional wisdom is that the President of the United States can't be held responsible for job creation, only business can. Which, technically is true. However, a lot of the power of that office is that, as the single most powerful person in the nation, he can speak, and by speaking, act as a "cheerleader" to inspire (or not) the people of the nation, and, even the world.

Of course, to speak effectively, you have to have A) some sort of message to deliver, and B) credibility.

Dubya has never really spoken out directly on the jobs situation. He's mostly been either on "cutting taxes will build jobs" or just sort of a general attitude that "things aren't all that good, but really they're OK and getting better". Whether he has credibility depends on who you ask.

Kerry, OTOH, has made jobs a major campaign issue, but I don't think he presently has any real credibility. A lot of the people who intend to vote for him are really just planning to vote against Bush.

So I don't know that I'd expect breakthroughs once the elections are over. We'll see.
 
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Originally posted by Tim Holloway:
I think that the main thing is that everyone here just lacks confidence. Although we have our share of people who say things are just great and getting better by the day, the actions tend to indicate a lot of people afraid to lay out too much money for fear that they may not have a job in 6 months. Or, if they do, it will pay considerably less.

Conventional wisdom is that the President of the United States can't be held responsible for job creation, only business can. Which, technically is true. However, a lot of the power of that office is that, as the single most powerful person in the nation, he can speak, and by speaking, act as a "cheerleader" to inspire (or not) the people of the nation, and, even the world.

Of course, to speak effectively, you have to have A) some sort of message to deliver, and B) credibility.

Dubya has never really spoken out directly on the jobs situation. He's mostly been either on "cutting taxes will build jobs" or just sort of a general attitude that "things aren't all that good, but really they're OK and getting better". Whether he has credibility depends on who you ask.

Kerry, OTOH, has made jobs a major campaign issue, but I don't think he presently has any real credibility. A lot of the people who intend to vote for him are really just planning to vote against Bush.

So I don't know that I'd expect breakthroughs once the elections are over. We'll see.



Are you saying that jobs will be created or jobs will not be created, regardless of who wins election?
 
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Companies not answering anyone but the person(s) getting an offer is nothing new.
I was always somewhat surprised to hear back at all, 90%+ never are heard from again here.
 
Tim Holloway
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Originally posted by Jesse Torres:


Are you saying that jobs will be created or jobs will not be created, regardless of who wins election?



I'll go out on a limb and even say that the stock market will go up or down regardless of how well/poorly the companies whose stocks are trading are actually doing.

The stock market, the job market, and the economy as a whole are basically self-fulfilling prophecies with lagging loosely-connected correction factors.

Supply-side economics is another case in point. There's definitely a relationship between freeing up cash and increased purchasing, but because of the looseness of the connection, it's akin to pushing on a rope rather than an "on" button. So many other factors can derail the process that it's not a good choice when the economy needs an immediate "push".
 
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I've seen hiring really pick up lately--it's the strongest I've seen in years.

That said, Q2 & Q3 corporate earnings were depressing. Consumer confidence also took a hit, so the upswing is rocky.

I think at this exact moment (the time at which I'm posting), and major corporate decisions are being postponed a week or so until the election is resolved--let's hope it only takes a week or so.

--Mark
 
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Is it three or four months in a row that the leading economic indicators have dropped? Elliot Spitzer seems to have no trouble making accusations. October jobs report will be out Friday. At least, in a historical perspective, we got through October without a crash.
 
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Originally posted by Homer Phillips:
Is it three or four months in a row that the leading economic indicators have dropped? Elliot Spitzer seems to have no trouble making accusations. October jobs report will be out Friday. At least, in a historical perspective, we got through October without a crash.



Do you mean that a crash is common in October?
 
Homer Phillips
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IIRC, October has been a bad month for the market more times than just in 29.

Will October jobs number out tomorrow break 150K new jobs?

BTW, on PBS NewsHour tonight a man said unemployed Ohians voted 2-1 for Kerry. OTH, I think most Americans don't think there's an employment problem in the US.

The big surge at the polls appears to be the social security crowd. They don't need a job.
 
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President Bush has won the election so we should continue to believe in his strong and consistent leadership with firm resolve.
 
Jesse Torres
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Originally posted by Homer Phillips:
IIRC, October has been a bad month for the market more times than just in 29.

Will October jobs number out tomorrow break 150K new jobs?

BTW, on PBS NewsHour tonight a man said unemployed Ohians voted 2-1 for Kerry. OTH, I think most Americans don't think there's an employment problem in the US.

The big surge at the polls appears to be the social security crowd. They don't need a job.



Are jobs going to be created at a pace of 100k or more per month for several years? Also, please provide more info on the PBS NewsHour episode?

Also, do you think that we have an employment problem?
[ November 04, 2004: Message edited by: Jesse Torres ]
 
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I've seen hiring really pick up lately--it's the strongest I've seen in years




I've noticed that too.

I don't know about other areas because I've been only looking at NY/NJ area, and lots of IT hiring going on - especially Wall St. financial firms.

Also, job offers are pretty good -- six-figure salary offers are not uncommon even at lower level (e.g., mid-level developer with only about 3-6 years of experience)
 
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Originally posted by Jay Shin:



I've noticed that too.

I don't know about other areas because I've been only looking at NY/NJ area, and lots of IT hiring going on - especially Wall St. financial firms.

Also, job offers are pretty good -- six-figure salary offers are not uncommon even at lower level (e.g., mid-level developer with only about 3-6 years of experience)



J2EE Jobs?
 
Tim Holloway
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Lots of stuff just came out locally on Monster.

Post-election bounce???
 
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Originally posted by Tim Holloway:
Lots of stuff just came out locally on Monster.

Post-election bounce???



Not post election, its been going on for a while U.S. Job Gains Strongest in Seven Months, Reuters.
 
Jay Shin
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Originally posted by Jesse Torres:

J2EE Jobs?




Both J2EE and J2SE jobs.

Those financial firms in NYC are recruiting both J2EE and J2SE (especially Swing) developers heavily right now.
 
Homer Phillips
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Post-election bounce???


No, jobs-on-the-cheap called for more last month. But like any C-student at Yale he was a dollar short and a day late. This traction patch won't last out the year. :roll:
[ November 05, 2004: Message edited by: Homer Phillips ]
 
Billy Tsai
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This is good news
are those jobs in New York City?
 
Tim Holloway
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Frankly, if I have to move to NYC or McLean VA to get a job, that's not saying much. I make a distinction between more hires at Wendy's vs. more hires for J2EE, too.

However, I was encouraged to see some local recruiting attempts, even if it does take more than 1 elephant to make a circus (PETA notwithstanding ).

An even more unusual thing was the Sunday paper here. Before the dot-com days, IT jobs were listed under "Data Processing". They retired that heading in favor of "Computer Jobs". Yesterday "Data Processing" was back. Even had 3 or 4 IT positions listed.
[ November 08, 2004: Message edited by: Tim Holloway ]
 
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I wonder what effect the continuing devaluation of the US dollar will have on the US IT industry? On the one hand it will make outsourcing less profitable, so could boost the industry, but on the other hand the industry could be harmed if electronic imports become more expensive. The is also the ever inescapable factor of oil prices. Oil is the heart beat of the economy, and if the US dollar goes down, oil prices (for US buyers) will go up. Increasing oil prices could put negative pressure on an already flaky economy.
 
peter wooster
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Originally posted by Joe King:
I wonder what effect the continuing devaluation of the US dollar will have on the US IT industry? On the one hand it will make outsourcing less profitable, so could boost the industry, but on the other hand the industry could be harmed if electronic imports become more expensive. The is also the ever inescapable factor of oil prices. Oil is the heart beat of the economy, and if the US dollar goes down, oil prices (for US buyers) will go up. Increasing oil prices could put negative pressure on an already flaky economy.



Note that the Chinese Yuan is pegged to the US$ at a rate of about 8.28 CNY = 1 US$. This means that devaluation of the US$ won't appreciably affect the price of electronics imported from China. As far as oil is concerned, the devaulation of the US$ will affect China as well.

On the other hand the Indian Rupee and the Canadian $ float, so offshoring to those locations will get less cost effective.
 
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Originally posted by Joe King:
I wonder what effect the continuing devaluation of the US dollar will have on the US IT industry? On the one hand it will make outsourcing less profitable, so could boost the industry, but on the other hand the industry could be harmed if electronic imports become more expensive. The is also the ever inescapable factor of oil prices. Oil is the heart beat of the economy, and if the US dollar goes down, oil prices (for US buyers) will go up. Increasing oil prices could put negative pressure on an already flaky economy.



Because of the falling dollar, electronic imports may simply go down in price more slowly than they would have otherwise.

I believe OPEC prices its oil in dollars. So oil won't _automatically_ go up in price, though it might if demand increases in countries with floating currencies. (For them, a falling dollar means falling oil prices.)

If oil producing countries become increasingly unstable (Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venesuela), we could be in for a global depression. This becomes ever more likely, as Americans become less willing to get involved, due to lack of international support. (If not for oil, who would have cared whether Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait?)

Traditionally in the U.S., the engineering profession has had a ten-year business cyle -- five years of boom alternating with five years of bust. As programming matures as a discipline, we may see a similar pattern.
 
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