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US loosing IT suppremacy

 
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Hi all !

One conclusion sentence from article below should rightly resume the whole idea : "Today, India is getting American jobs; tomorrow, it'll get its position as well". Any comment, especially from Indian folks ?

Whole article : http://infotech.indiatimes.com/articleshow/892408.cms

Best regards.
 
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In one word - Silly!!!
Frankly, you should take such articles from TOI witha pinch of salt. In fact, I guess in the long run India will not have enough educated people with proper qualifications, given the rate at which educational expenses are rising.

The strength of India has always been its highly educated middle class, with education becoming that expensive I doubt how many middle class people will be able to afford college education to their children 15 years from now!!! Today KG kids are spending annual fees in which I have completed my whole education not so long ago!!!

- Manish
 
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What major new software products have been conceived and funded in India? What Computer Science textbook, or even programming manual originated in India (Prof. Mughal teaches in Norway}? What basic ideas are coming from India the way structured programming and Linux came from Europe?

It seems to me that the there is as much chance of India taking a leadership role in IT as there is of China setting the trends for this Spring's fashions.

I think that the powers that be in India will avoid even the appearance of taking over. The US could quickly in-shore application programming through privacy regulations, for instance, if the leading US IT companies felt threatened. This is completely different from the automobile industry, where there is a huge unmovable capital base.

The bargain rates for experienced Indian programmers have made entry-level American programming jobs so scarce that the pipeline is drying up. However, it would be easy enough to quickly rebuild the US workforce if necessary. There's an old cliche about how most programmers with five years' experience really have one years' experience five times. I know from a lifetime in the field that the steep part of the learning curve is under a year for good people.

The prediction in the article is unlikely. The Indian IT industry is making a fortune doing coding for US companies. Why would they rock the boat now?
[ January 14, 2005: Message edited by: Mike Gershman ]
 
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I think the article is poorly written. I think the percieved shortfall of US citizens in math and science is overblown.

But in ten years India will be the IT leader, IMO.

I hope it means when a tsunami stikes the Indian Ocean, the Indians will lead the remediation effort.
 
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India will get a lot of the production out of Europe and the US, but not the innovative thought that leads to new product categories and entirely new paradigms.

Even Indians who do make such leaps are not employed in India, they work in Europe or the US in teams made up of Americans and Europeans.

Nothing against Indians (well, I don't like them taking our jobs very much) but they're not generally known for being technology innovators.
 
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TOI makes me laugh. They know they have a diverse audience, so they routinely like to run articles on how outsourcing is no threat to the West on the same page as "India is going to take over the world" articles.

Long before India was a place to go for cheap labor, it was contributing leading computer scientists. The only real difference these days is that it's no longer necessary to leave India to be able to access the resources required to do major R&D.

So far, no software product of major note can call India home, but I doubt that will be the case much longer. In fact, the main reason it hasn't already happened is probably the fact that much of the leading edge development these days is PC-based, and, while Western payscales have no problems accomodating a PC or 3 around the house, more than one Indian in this forum has stated that a PC is still a major purchase over there. The price of PCs in absolute dollars (or rupees, rubles or euros) is pretty much the same world-wide.

Still, I knew an obnoxious young kid (back when I myself was an obnoxious young kid) who'd had a midsize IBM mainframe installed in a Kentucky farmhouse. If you want it bad enough, there's often a way.

I get really annoyed when people try to blame the offshoring thing on laziness or lack of education. Too many of us who are guilty of neither have suffered in the last few years.

India probably will take over the lead in software if things don't change. Not because of an innate superiority, better work ethic, or better education. Rather because the best way to become is to do. Right now, 2 out of 3 IT people wouldn't recommend training for the field in the US (recent COMPUTERWORLD online poll). With that kind of encouragement, you're going to get the most dedicated - the ones who would work with computers whether it paid anything or not - and not the second-tier people who contribute relatively little in their own right, but, by existing ensure that the ocean in which the major lights swim will have some depth.
 
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Today, India is getting American jobs; tomorrow, it'll get its position as well



What a joke! Indian people can get American jobs coz their wages are much lower.

BTW, what main contributions of IT are made in India? TCP/IP, WAPI, Windows,
Unix, Oracle?
 
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Guys, guys, guys..... please just treat this article as a joke. It is not meant for the international audience. These are just articles which are crowd pleasers locally. There are many innovative minds in India, but the market is not really suited for them. Its always been a services based IT model that has been pre-dominant in India, and India is pretty happy with that.

Also Jeroen has rightly pointed out "Even Indians who do make such leaps are not employed in India, they work in Europe or the US in teams made up of Americans and Europeans." But I also want to add that in US and Europe, the innovative Indian minds are pretty capable of doing stuff independently too and may not necessarily be in a team made up of Americans & Europeans.
 
Mike Gershman
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in US and Europe, the innovative Indian minds are pretty capable of doing stuff independently too and may not necessarily be in a team made up of Americans & Europeans.


OK, Soniya, name one on a par with Gosling, Stroustrup, Kernighan, Richie, Korn, Bourne, Hopper, Bachus, Jobs, Amdahl, Eckert, Mauchly, Turing, Knuth, or even just Watson (senior and junior) or Gates.

That was fun! How many of you can supply all the first names without google?
 
soniya saxena
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I didnt mean to say that all innovative Indians are at par with these extremely great people that u have mentioned.
For eg., I hope u r not trying to say that every intelligent person is as intelligent as the most intelligent person on earth.
My point is that I have seen successful companies being created by Indians in the US. For eg., Hotmail was created by Sabeer Bhatia.
I am not good at tracking who created what, but i am sure that there r several better examples, which others might be able to help me out with.

Originally posted by Mike Gershman:

OK, Soniya, name one on a par with Gosling, Stroustrup, Kernighan, Richie, Korn, Bourne, Hopper, Bachus, Jobs, Amdahl, Eckert, Mauchly, Turing, Knuth, or even just Watson (senior and junior) or Gates.

That was fun! How many of you can supply all the first names without google?

 
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Originally posted by Mike Gershman:

name one on a par with .....


So you don't even know one

So you mean India's contribution to the world is: zero ??
And you are right (first line)
[ January 14, 2005: Message edited by: K Varun ]
 
Varun Khanna
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Originally posted by Eric Lemaitre:

One conclusion sentence from article below should rightly resume the whole idea : "Today, India is getting American jobs; tomorrow, it'll get its position as well". Any comment, especially from Indian folks ?



Your intensions might be clean, but posting topics like these "generally" does nothing but creates an un-healthy environment, starts age old "who-is-better" debates ...
and ultimately -
The thread gets locked.
 
Mike Gershman
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So you mean India's contribution to the world is: zero ??
And you are right (first line)


Please don't generalize my question. I asked Soniya who the top Indian IT innovators were. I was not questioning India's contributions to human civilization, world peace, or international cuisine.

Can you answer my question to Soniya?

How about just giving the first names of the folks on my list?
 
Greenhorn
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OK, Soniya, name one on a par with Gosling, Stroustrup, Kernighan, Richie, Korn, Bourne, Hopper, Bachus, Jobs, Amdahl, Eckert, Mauchly, Turing, Knuth, or even just Watson (senior and junior) or Gates.

That was fun! How many of you can supply all the first names without google?



Hi Mike this is not to insult or hurt anybody. After looking on the names above I felt like laughing!!! Most of the above names need googling.

Peoples like Sabeer Bhatia, Vinod Khosla, Narayana murthy, Azim Premji, Dipak Jain are more than some of the people you named above.

Nowadays one cannot name single person as a great innovator. All the innovations is a team effort. Team constitutes of Americans, Europians, Asians etc. The greatest innovations in IT like Windows, IE, Google etc are all contributed by major number of indian developers.

Companies like IBM, Microsft, Oracle, BEA, Intel all have R&D centers in India, that means the latest innovations by these leaders are also contributed by Indians like the Americans do here
 
Mike Gershman
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Peoples like Sabeer Bhatia, Vinod Khosla, Narayana murthy, Azim Premji, Dipak Jain are more than some of the people you named above.


I doubt very much whether Murthy, Premji, or Jain consider themselves more than Bill Gates or Thomas Watson, Jr, or Steve Jobs.

Bhatia and Khosla completed their education and achieved their success in the USA. I was referring to Indians working in India. The original headline "US Losing IT Supremacy" was talking about countries, not ethnicity. I recently completed an MS in NY and many of the most brilliant PhD students were Indian. The question is which country will allow them to conceive of the next big thing. This has to happen before a team does the implementation.

I think you should google the people I named. You'll see the difference between creating and engineering.

There are deep structural issues that India must deal with before it can become a true center of innovation and many people in the upper levels of your society will resist the changes. I think that change will come, not just to India but to China, Arabia, and Indonesia, but like the shifting of tectonic plates under the Ocean, the process will be violent, cause a lot of misery, and take a lot of time.

In the USA, it took from Civil War in 1861-1865 to the end of the Great Depression in 1940 to make the necessary adjustments. In the meanwhile, I'm glad that so many Indian IT people are making a good living and a few are making a fortune. As I've said in other posts, nothing promotes world peace like giving people a decent life and a stake in society.
 
Eric Lemaitre
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Hi all !

I'm the weasel topic starter who chose on purpose some provocative terms so as to catch people's attention hence provoked this rather fierce debate, but although I left the article link rather bare so as not to influence anyone it is drifting too much from the subject for which I wanted to debate.
___________________________________________________________________________

IMHO USA is no longer IT leader right now for some pure technical temporary issues, so no real trouble on short term :

_ recovery after internet bubble which denies IT professionnals the time to innovate for only producing so as to preserve profits, which is greatly emphasized by gigantic present US deficit.

_ all readily available funds for IT are oriented towards military field, civil innovation is practically stopped.

_ although market is clearly recovering, H1B visa system drifts totally deny US employers recruiting qualified alien staff on time. What is worse, US employers have a bad tendency to ignore skills upgrade for immediate productivity.

_ total lack of H1B controls leads to import massively overexploited cheap labour, mainly from India, which pushes wages lower for beginners/average IT professionnals, and even worse making many students abandon this field. As IT complexity will increase (OS + networking + developpment + RDBMS + architecture + knowledge of customer's business + ...) making skills upgrade much harder while students avoid this very hard and poorly profitable matter and H1B is unapplicable, experts estimate within 5 years 1.7 million qualified IT professionnals will be lacking in US.
___________________________________________________________________________

But USA has already had many hard times and has recovered, so these temporary issues are no real trouble, if relevant political and market measures are set and external political (mainly Irak) situation gets much better it will. And no other country is able to take over US place in IT field right now because each is plagued by at least one great default (either corrupt or ancient-minded or stupid economics system).

So the real question I wanted to debate about is, what if political situation doesn't get better for years without anything changing in USA while another country suddenly totally shifts his economics policy at 180 degrees so as to take US place while it can be done ?

Best serious 2 candidates are IMHO :

_ UK : excellent economic and legal system, very comparable to US except for too hight cost of live, really profitable to rich only. If they set cheap/free housing and small wages for selected enterprener candidates (they even do it for illegal immigrants without any economical interest), considering individual taxes are set upon the money you send in UK only (not if left abroad) their individual business taxes can be very weak, so they could easily gather all western european junior enterpreners instead of USA as there is no visa issue (except russia).

_ Germany : rather comparable to UK, but with its overfat social system crumbling and a guaranty for its present government to be beatten at next elections except if economics go much better they have nothing to loose and have already undertaken drastic economical changes and could become extremely agressive to enhance their economy. The fact many germans accepted to work 5 extra hours a week without compensation and the great consecutive improvement of their exportations and wealth proves it works. No visa issue either for europeans.

So please focus back on original debate I wanted to initiate : what if US keeps his present defaults long (gigantic deficit, no relevant qualified labour immigration together with very bad beginners conditions leading to huge qualified people shortage, civil innovation stopped, ...) which is likely to last years while one serious candidate like the 2 above fixes his own quick ?

Best regards.
 
Greenhorn
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Hmm..

Until India and the rest of the outsourcing nations become home to the leading companies who are driving innovation, they will not be the leaders in IT. The countries who host the companies who use the outsourcing nations will be. I don't see the US relinquishing this role any time soon, and I still see an increase in tech jobs within the US in the future.


If your in the states and your looking for a java gig, move to the washington dc area, they seem to be everywhere.
 
Mike Gershman
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If your in the states and your looking for a java gig, move to the washington dc area, they seem to be everywhere.


Entry level Java jobs near DC?

That would be good news for JavaRanchers! Where did you see them?
 
Eric Lemaitre
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Hi Alexander !

Until India and the rest of the outsourcing nations become home to the leading companies who are driving innovation, they will not be the leaders in IT.

You are totally right, and this is the point : the leading IT country is the one which drives innovation, this IS indeed why US could easily loose IT suppremacy, as civil innovation is practically stopped while almost only military related projects have funds and labour H1B visas practically reserved to cheap average level indians so as to make past internet profits recover. The wole point is whether another country will be smart enough to exploit this temporary halt of US innovation to capture the enterpreners candidate unable to go to US right now by offering them the chance US will refuse for some time, while US doesn't react at all because its main concern for some years will be Irak and nothing else.

I still see UK and germany as good candidates for next IT suppremacy (UK is much better equipped for financial issues but germany is already industrial exportation world leader) if they are smart enough to make the relevant needed slight accomodations to welcome all valuable european enterpreners without any visa issue.

I don't see the US relinquishing this role any time soon, and I still see an increase in tech jobs within the US in the future.

No and yes :

_ US is already declining as all IT force is used to produce so as to recover profits, no longer to innovate. Already now in some IT fields US is no longer a leader (for example JDO [Java Data Objects] leader is french Xcalia far before US held Versant/Solarmetrics-Kodo). This trend will simply get worse for some time untill US reacts, if it ever does for US gov never interferes with business unless his main political interests are at stake, which is not the case here, pure business issue...

_ Of course tech jobs will increase within the US in the future, simply because of past internet bubble recovery, but this is not the point : as US is world's widest market there will allways be a need for business staff, but either employed by US companies if innovation is US or US branches of alien companies if innovation is foreign. Both situations will mean employment in US, first option means high wages as technology owners but second one low wages as executants.

Best regards.
 
Greenhorn
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A Crappy article.Never Trust Indian media or politicians about indian IT industry.They Make Bill gates out of a Call centre worker.Almost all the companies boast of CMM Level 5(Even fledgling and neophyte ones).The projects are not at all challenging.Mundane and dumb works like health care and banking etc.,.Morever Education system is a flawed one.We get imperfect engineers,who have no more comp knowledge than a bright 10+2 kid.

US with its great infrastructure and education system will be out of dreams for Indian IT industry

Note:I live in Hyderabad ,India
 
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