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Iraq in numbers

 
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Jason gave a link in another thread to the poll results in Iraq, and I thought they are interesting enough and deserve a separate thread. (Here is a more readable overview, but you can miss some details).
To Jason: speaking about Iraqi's desire to have 1300 Spanish soldiers on their soil, I am not sure what exactly made you feel so. These are two most relevant questions:
Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the presence of Coalition Forces in Iraq?

<table border="1"><tr><td>Strongly support<td>13.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Somewhat support<td>26.3%</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>-------</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>39,5%</td></tr><tr><td>Somewhat oppose</td><td>19.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Strongly oppose</td><td>31.3%</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>--------</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>50,9</td></tr><tr><td>Difficult to say</td><td> 9.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Total</td><td>100.0%</td></tr></table> So basically what we see, is 40% support, 50% against. How long do you think U.S. and other Coalition Forces should remain in Iraq? <table border="1"><tr><td>They should leave now </td><td>15.1%</td></tr><tr><td>They should remain for a few months</td><td>8.3% </td></tr><tr><td>They should remain for six months to a year </td><td>6.1% </td></tr><tr><td>They should remain for more than one year </td><td>4.3% </td></tr><tr><td>They should remain until security is restored</td><td>18.3% </td></tr><tr><td>They should remain until an Iraqi government is in place <td>35.8% </td></tr><tr><td>They should never leave <td>1.5% </td></tr><tr><td>Difficult to say <td>10.6% </td></tr><tr><td>Total<td>100.0% </td></tr></table>
I would conclude that the majority wants to have their own government pretty soon...
[ March 16, 2004: Message edited by: Mapraputa Is ]
 
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Nothing weird there. The US wants them to have their own government soon as well.
If there hadn't been constant harassment attacks from groups who want to prevent democracy taking its course in Iraq they'd have had it by now too and the US (and other) troops would have been gone or on the way out...
Actually the US troop mandate was originally planned to stop several months ago but was extended to counter the continued attacks on the as yet brittle Iraqi society.
 
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Cool,so Iraq was invaded by US/Spain/UK basically to set a democracy .Rest of the world unnecessarily opposed them.If other countries 'cooprated' we would have seen democracy much earlier.
 
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Originally posted by Capablanca Kepler:
Cool,so Iraq was invaded by US/Spain/UK basically to set a democracy .


And now US condemns the way democracy worked in Spain. :roll:
 
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Originally posted by R K Singh:

And now US condemns the way democracy worked in Spain. :roll:


The US has not condemned anything. There are people who feel the terrorist won but the US has not condemned democracy in Spain.
 
R K Singh
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Originally posted by Paul Stevens:
There are people who feel the terrorist won but the US has not condemned democracy in Spain.


How can terrorist win when democracy took his own side ??
 
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Of all the statistics posted in that poll, it's interesting that Map focuses her attention on that one (the first). Some others...
Compared to a year ago, I mean before the war in Spring 2003, are things
overall in your life much better now, somewhat better, about the same,
somewhat worse or much worse?

Much better now 21.9
Somewhat better 34.6
About the same 23.3
Somewhat worse 12.7
Much worse 5.9
Difficult to say 1.6
Total 100.0

To put my Mapraputian analysis on it, an entire 18.6% of the country feels somewhat worse off or much worse off then before the war (I'll ignore the 56.6% who feel they are somewhat better or much better since the war).
What is your expectation for how things overall in your life will be in a year from now? Will they be much better, somewhat better, about the same,
somewhat worse or much worse?

Much better 36.7
Somewhat better 34.3
About the same 9.4
Somewhat worse 3.2
Much worse 3.4
Difficult to say 12.8
Total 100.0


To apply the analysis once again, in a year from now, a whopping 6.6% of the population feels that their situation will be somewhat or much worse (once again ignoring the optomistic 71%).
Overall, how would you say things are going in your life these days – very good, quite good, quite bad, or very bad?
Very good 13.4
Quite good 56.6
Quite bad 14.2
Very bad 14.8
Difficult to say 1.1
Total 100.0

A very large 29% think their life isn't going as well as it should. Of course then there's the 69% who think it's going quite good or very good.
From today's perspective and all things considered, was it absolutely right, somewhat right, somewhat wrong or absolutely wrong that US-led coalition forces invaded Iraq in Spring 2003?
Absolutely right 19.6
Somewhat right 28.6
Somewhat wrong 12.9
Absolutely wrong 26.2
Difficult to say 12.7
Total 100.0


39.1% feel that the invasion was wrong, as opposed to only 48.2% who feel it was right.
If you have had personally any encounters with Coalition Force soldiers, was your last encounter very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative or very negative?
Very positive 3.5
Somewhat positive 5.8
Somewhat negative 2.5
Very negative 5.9
Never had a personal encounter with coalition forces soldiers 77.5
Difficult to say 4.8
Total 100.0

It seems that 77.5% of respondants have never actually had any personal contact with coalition forces, 9.3% have had positive contact, and 8.4% negative contact.
How long do you think U.S. and other Coalition Forces should remain in Iraq?

They should leave now 15.1
They should remain for a few months 8.3
They should remain for six months to a year 6.1
They should remain for more than one year 4.3
They should remain until security is restored 18.3
They should remain until an Iraqi government is in place 35.8
They should never leave 1.5
Difficult to say 10.6
Total 100.0

This one contradicts somewhat the one that Map highlighted. The vast majority feels that the coalition forces should remain in Iraq, at least until an Iraqi government is in place.
Some other random statistics... 78.1% oppose attacks against coalition forces, and larger percentages oppose attacks against other entities within Iraq (eg 96.6% oppose attacks on the new Iraqi police).
Let's look at the whole picture, and not just focus on one stat that might seem to support our preconceived notions.
 
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There are three kinds of lies; lies, damn lies, and statistics


Statistical questionaires mean nothing. It all depends on the cross section of the public being questioned.
 
Jason Menard
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Originally posted by Nigel Browne:
Statistical questionaires mean nothing. It all depends on the cross section of the public being questioned.


That has been addressed in the poll. From what I have gathered, most experts seem to take this particular poll as fairly representative. People who aren't happy that the results don't fit their preconceived notions seem to be dismissing it anyway.
 
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Originally posted by Jeroen Wenting:
Nothing weird there. The US wants them to have their own government soon as well.
If there hadn't been constant harassment attacks from groups who want to prevent democracy taking its course in Iraq they'd have had it by now too and the US (and other) troops would have been gone or on the way out...


And they (US troops) would have been available to go into Syria after some much needed R&R for about ummm 7 months or thereabouts
 
Jeroen Wenting
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Damascus is supposed to be nice this time of year...
 
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How about a day on the beach in Beirut?
 
Mapraputa Is
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Jason, I understand your irritation, but my first post was mainly intended to respond to your statement that brought this thread to live. The most interesting part for me was Iraqi's ideas about democracy, but I didn't have time yesterday (this "blog" thing slows me down).
Q15 - A. People have different ideas about what Iraq needs at this time. How about you? How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Top two choices:
An Iraqi democracy -72.2%
A (single) strong Iraqi leader - 66.5%
The next question adds some temporal perspective:
Q15B - What do you think Iraq needs in 12 months time?
Q15C - What do you think Iraq needs in five years time?

A (single) strong Iraqi leader 46.6% 35.5%
An Iraqi democracy 28.0% 41.6 %
From this I conclude that Iraqis want democracy - eventually, but for now they want a strong leader who would bring them there. This is close to my own understanding. A big part of the problem with Russia as I see it is that we didn't have a strong, popular leader who could unite and lead the nation. This isn't too democratic an idea, but otherwise what happens could be better called "chaos", not "democracy". And I do not see this strong leader, the most popular guy from the question13, Ahmed Chalabi, got only 10%. You can accuse me in pessimism, but hey, I wasn't born a pessimist, I became one.
To tell the truth, I am worried about Iraq's feature. For one thing, they are too well armed. Nothing even close existed in the fUSSR, and how many local civil wars were after fUSSR collapsed? For another, they have enough of ethnical and religious differences, which is, as I learnt, a very inflammable material. Any local politician can try to use it to his advantage, and if it isn't enough - there are instigators outside.
I wish I was wrong. There are positive signs, like Sunnis and Shi'a getting along pretty well so far. So maybe the future isn't so black.
[ March 18, 2004: Message edited by: Mapraputa Is ]
 
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The only thing I wonder is how badly Iraqis want democracy. I'm continually surprised that not all peoples of the world respond to oppression as early Americans did when given the opportunity...but it's true. A lot of people seem to think that oppressing everyone else with their own personal agenda is the solution.
It is a strange thing that our Founding Fathers were raised in a culture of social and political control by a monarchy, but the idea of freedom was readily available to sprout and grow in their minds to the extent it became a real, palpable thing that could be acted upon. And herein lies the difference? Just a theory, but is it possible that in the Islamic world, the very idea of experiencing and engaging a mass of everyday, little freedoms is so foreign that it's incomprehensible?
(By the way, in case you missed it: yes, I am implying that Islam itself has something to do with this mindset.)
sev
[ March 20, 2004: Message edited by: sever oon ]
 
R K Singh
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Originally posted by sever oon:
(By the way, in case you missed it: yes, I am implying that Islam itself has something to do with this mindset.)


Are you vegetarian ??
 
Arjun Shastry
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Who is responsible for this?
 
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That's just terrible! Shiite. (Note the apostrophe has been omitted).
 
Arjun Shastry
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The world was told that Iraqis were happy with American/British forces for setting up the democracy.
 
Jason Menard
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Originally posted by Capablanca Kepler:
The world was told that Iraqis were happy with American/British forces for setting up the democracy.


You do realize that there are several different factions in Iraq, don't you? You do realize that they don't all speak with the same voice, correct? It's naive to take any single incident such as this and say that it is indicative of the rage of "the Iraqis". That particular incident is merely indicative of the rage of the Baathist supporters (who are Sunni btw) who are upset at having Saddam deposed because they are no longer the privileged few.
[ March 31, 2004: Message edited by: Jason Menard ]
 
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I am very pro american, I live in Florida, even tried to join the Marines (Metatarsuls-adductus PDQ'd me). But the whole Iraqi crisis is just America being good housekeepers and cleaning up the mess they made, with very evident help from our allies in this little conflict. We made a mistake putting Hussien in power, we fixed our mistake. 'nuff said
 
Jason Menard
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Originally posted by Drew Dambrell:
We made a mistake putting Hussien in power, we fixed our mistake. 'nuff said


We didn't put Hussein in power.
 
Jeroen Wenting
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Originally posted by Jason Menard:

We didn't put Hussein in power.


Indeed, he put himself in power with a little help from the north (USSR, for the geographically disinclined).
The US did help him stay in power during the Iran/Iraq war (which he started btw) as did most of the western world for the simple reason that the USSR and China (the common enemy) supported Iran and we didn't want a fundamentalist muslim nation control all the northern Persian Gulf and likely sweeping down into Saudi Arabia (which is an ally) and Kuwait (another ally).
It was a gamble, and one that paid off (Iran was contained) but had negative consequences as well (Iraq created a powerful military machine with which they invaded Kuwait and threatened Saudi Arabia as soon as they had taken a breath from the Iran/Iraq war. Whether we're (as in the world at large) worse off now than we would have been had we allowed Iran to crush Iraq and occupy it in the Iran/Iraq war has not yet been decided, but I think we are.
 
Mapraputa Is
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They don't even wait until the withdrawal of American troops to start a Civil War!
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/04/international/middleeast/04CND-IRAQ.html?ex=1081742400&en=8a4fac93536c39a5&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE
 
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Originally posted by Mapraputa Is:
They don't even wait until the withdrawal of American troops to start a Civil War!


If violent demonstrations are a sign of civil war then India has been under civil war since Independence and we still have a democracy. So it isnt that bad eh?
Map, you need to stop looking at the glass half-empty. NY Times gives me the impression that they are almost rooting for an American failure in Iraq to nail the point that democracy cannot be exported, dont join those ranks Map.
 
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Originally posted by sever oon:
It is a strange thing that our Founding Fathers were raised in a culture of social and political control by a monarchy, but the idea of freedom was readily available to sprout and grow in their minds to the extent it became a real, palpable thing that could be acted upon.


Er, if you're talking about the U.S., they were raised in a culture of a constitutional government where democratic traditions were already quite strong; the power of the monarchy had been eroding ever since the magna carta in 1215. As for the founding fathers, their major complaint was that they themselves, being in a colony rather than in England proper, weren't able to vote for their own members of parlaiment, while people they knew in England were.
If you're talking about some other country, I'm interested in which.
 
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PMK: If violent demonstrations are a sign of civil war then India has been under civil war since Independence and we still have a democracy. So it isnt that bad eh?
I must admit that my picture of democracy somehow didn't include crowds run along the streets with AK-47. But then why not... Maybe you are right. Many kinds of democracy are possible... Before only Saddam killed Iraqis, now they all can have fun and kill each other. That's freedom, after all. Therefore I upgraded my mental image of democracy to include occasional uprisings.
As for the half-empty glass, if not to watch it closely soon there may be no water at all. "rooting for an American failure in Iraq to nail the point that democracy cannot be exported" - nah, too late. If we started the job we must finish it as well as possible.
 
Arjun Shastry
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Originally posted by Jason Menard:

We didn't put Hussein in power.


From this article,it seems ,the then USA government was much responsible for Saddam's success.
{
....Saddam was making frequent visits
to the American Embassy where CIA specialists such as
Miles Copeland and CIA station chief Jim Eichelberger
were in residence and knew Saddam, former U.S.
intelligence officials said.
}
{
According to Darwish, the CIA and DIA provided military
assistance to Saddam's ferocious February 1988 assault
on Iranian positions in the al-Fao peninsula by
blinding Iranian radars for three days
}
 
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