US Job Market Recession

[Ram Deshpande]

Hi Ranchaers !
Just read news about recession fear in US Job Market.

http://www.inteldaily.com/?c=139&a=3461
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/07/business/07cnd-econ.html

4000 jobs cut in August; recession feared. - By Justin Peters ...
http://www.slate.com/id/2173636/

Is there more impact in future 2 /3 Qs as well??
Does this because of SUBPRIME Issue??

Please advice.

Regards
Ram

[Arjun Shastry]

Economists of every country spread these kind of news often.After two weeks you might see again the report "labor shortage,difficult to find the people with xyz skills in some area" .

[Rahul Bhattacharjee]

Originally posted by Arjun Shastry:
Economists of every country spread these kind of news often.After two weeks you might see again the report "labor shortage,difficult to find the people with xyz skills in some area" .

Absolutely Arjun.

Both these categories of news go hand in hand.

[Tim Holloway]

Unfortunately, while localized skill supply/demand fluctuates all the time, there's also the broader economy. Yes, the U.S. economy is at the brink of one of its periodic recessionary cycles, and when it does actually go into a recession, the patterns of employment will change significantly.

Recessions are cause by a number of factors, though at its base a recession is all about people being unwilling to spend money. If you don't spend money, someone else doesn't get paid, they get laid off, they stop buying what you produce, you get laid off, and down it spirals until people start getting enough confidence to start buying again. Or, as some say, people just give up and start buying anyway.

The old adage is that, economically speaking, when the U.S. sneezes, the world gets pneumonia. I expect that eventually that will stop being true, as the force of the economies of China, India, and the European Union become more at parity with the U.S., but for now, it's still pretty much true.

The U.S. economy is under stress from a variety of places - energy costs, trade imbalance, and the current favorite: the Mortgage Crunch, are all contributors. However, both recessions and boom times are ultimately psychologically-induced. Right now, the U.S. populace is uneasy, but not yet ready to stop spending. Both good and bad news appear on the economic front daily, and while it's reasonably certain based on current news that we'll dip into recession within 6-12 months or so, it's not guaranteed.

The next recession will be an "interesting" one. The last one pushed a lot of software development overseas, since recessions mean economizing, and economizing means delaying projects or finding less expensive alternatives. Since then, Indian developer salaries have risen substantially, and the U.S. corporations that have been recently threatening to offshore more if the U.S. economy tanks will get a pretty rude shock. How they'll deal with it is more than I can guess.

[Michael Raymond Jr.]

no need to fret...yet.

the unemployment rate nationally for the US is still under 5%. 4.6 as of a few months ago if i recall correctly.


in regards to outsourcing and it getting worse if the US economy goes intp a slump again, i read an article the other day (think it was on certmag) that said (i think) 3-5% of US IT jobs have been outsourced since 2001. i don't remember the source, but it wasn't outlandish and may have been the US dept of labor. point is that if those numbers are correct, the whole scare of outsourcing is more myth than anything. also, some companies have been closing down overseas shops and bringing them back to the States, as Dell has done in india and the phils over the last year or two.

[Carl Williams]

Well you can check out the job demand info for this year so far across various skills to see if your job could be affected: http://www.odinjobs.com/US_job_market_overview.html

[Jignesh Patel]

I want to continue this disscusion and wanted to know when US supposed to expect resession. By the next year ......

And good explanation. Please don't counter argument about recession--- is not coming. It is for sure going to come, as mentioned previous posting US economy is on brink of recession.

[Ulf Dittmer]

Originally posted by Jignesh Patel:
I want to continue this disscusion and wanted to know when US supposed to expect resession.

Anyone who knows this for sure could make a lot of money in the markets. But since this is the Jobs Discussion forum -and not the Economic Discussion forum- suffice it to say add that you should not make plans around working and jobs that depend on when a recession might or might not come.

[Ryan Phillips]

I think this may be true many places across the US; however the job market has gone absolutely crazy here in California. It seems like many people are retiring. Some companies have done layoffs; however candidates are still few and far between to fill the open positions. I have has mutiple candidates interviewing with multiple offers on the table. Some of them do not know which one to take and they have a tough time deciding.

[Mark Herschberg]

Ryan, welcome. It's always nice to have recruiters provide their unique perspective on many of our discussions.

--Mark

[Arjun Shastry]

If one does a quick search on word "java" in say dice.com you find 17621 jobs in which java is required(or nice to have).On naukri.com(India's leading job portal) same search gives 4985 related jobs.One can easily guess where the job market is good.

[Pat Farrell]

One man's "brink of recession" is another's opportunity. As others have said, a recession is coming, the business cycle has not been repealed. But, if you can accurately predict the timing when it will happen, you can make far more money in the markets than you ever will as a developer. Even a developer at Google or Microsoft when they started.

There is no such thing as a US wide job market. Honda and Toyota are hiring in their car factories while GM and Ford are laying off thousands.

Right now, embedded Java is screaming hot. J2EE is hot. Mashups and anything claiming to be Web 2.0 is on fire. Cobol is cold. Maybe Cobol will come back, I kind of doubt it.
[ October 10, 2007: Message edited by: Pat Farrell ]

[Ryan Phillips]

I know many people think us recruiters are not really good for much other than standing in between someone and their next job; however I think we are the first group to see the market change. In March 2006, there were a ton of contract positions going across my desk. All the companies in the bay area only wanted to hire contractors. Since about June of 2007, companies here in the bay area have either had a mass exodus of people retiring or are deciding to expand. The most incredible thing though is it has become a candidate's market here. Many candidates I am presenting to a hiring manager have two or more offers within a week or two of beginning their search.

One thing I have noticed slowing down; however is SAP. Last year, SAP PMs, BAs and Developers were really high in demand. Currently I know a ton of SAP people who are out of work. I think companies have finally put their foot down in regard to SAP development costs. Oracle is still in constant demand; especially the supply chain versions. My advice for any database developer is not to specialize in SAP only.

[Pat Farrell]

Originally posted by Ryan Phillips:
I know many people think us recruiters are not really good for much other than standing in between someone and their next job; however I think we are the first group to see the market change. .

So you guys are the canaries in the mine shaft? I can see that.
I'd expect you'd see more placement requests when things are hot.

Originally posted by Ryan Phillips:

One thing I have noticed slowing down; however is SAP.

My advice to any professional is not to focus on one application.

I have always been amazed at how successful SAP has been. The package is expensive, and requires tons of "tweaks" to work in any large scale company. Once you've made it work, its impossible to back out.

Great salesfolks at SAP I guess.

[Schandha Ravi]

Hi All,

While I was browsing on recession topic, I eventually found this thread having experts opinion and thought of clarifying my doubts on job market. I have over 4 years of experience under my belt in both development (Mainframes) and testing. But It has been my dream to be into Java/J2EE. Unfortunately I could not make it out till now. As a point of fact, my trials were not serious. But I'm knowledgeable in Java, certified SCJP and SCWCD. With this knowledge and confidence, I'm determined and decided to get into java, even though it requires me to start my career all from the beginning. But the current job trend in US and India are worrying me too much. Can some one over there hear my question and answer me with your valuable information. It seems to me that my dream is going to be remained as a dream, never turn into reality .

[arulk pillai]

Never ever give up. There will always be opportunities for some one passionate and committed to make the change.

-- But need to be bit more creative in preparing a resume that can stand out from fellow candidates in similar situation or level. Your CV is a key marketing tool to get to an interview stage.

-- Brush up or prepare for your interviews so that you can standout from your competition.

-- Work on sample projects/tutorials to get some hands on experienece and build confidence. Concentrate more on some of the sought after technologies like Spring, Hibernate, JSF, AJAX etc.


It is always hard to get your first break once get it it should be a better sail. Get professional help where needed like in preparing effective resume, building sample projects using popular technologies/frameworks. Also worth having good mentors who can guide you.


Good luck.

[Schandha Ravi]

Thank you Arulk