Oracle to buy BEA???

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

Oracle has always had an incredible reputation for their database, and their aquisition of application software has been fierce. Still, on head to head sales with IBM and DB2, their real downfall was the lack of a solid, reputable, middle-tier server. It was a missing piece of the puzzle, and it created a huge gap. Their existing middle tier server simply didn't have much of a reputation.

But with the potential aquisition of BEA, man, that's huge. I mean, the lack of a mid-tier server was Oracle's problem, and on sales calls, IBM could always crush WebLogic on the lack of peripheral technologies that produce a 'one-vendor' solution.

If Oracle gets BEA, not only will they have a solid middle-tier server, arguably the best, but BEA will have the backing of Oracle.

I think this is huge. I also think it will happen.

-Cameron McKenzie



Oracle to Buy BEA

[Arvind Mahendra]

BEA turned them down. Thank GOD!!.
but Oracle being oracle this is will probably result in a hostile takeover attempt unless BEA buys back some of its shares to get itself back to owning 51% if they don't already.
I watch alot of CNBC but have no idea what all this means

[Henry Wong]

Originally posted by Chunnard Singh II:

but Oracle being oracle this is will probably result in a hostile takeover attempt unless BEA buys back some of its shares to get itself back to owning 51% if they don't already.

I don't think it works that way. The only shares that get to vote are the outstanding shares. BEA shares that are own by BEA don't count. This is (one of the reasons) why the stock price goes up when a company does a buyback, there are less outstanding shares.

On the other hand, BEA doesn't need 51%, it just need controlling interest. And to do that, it just needs to have good relationships with some its largest investors.

Henry

[Arvind Mahendra]

Originally posted by Henry Wong:


I don't think it works that way. The only shares that get to vote are the outstanding shares.

Henry

What are outstanding shares? I thought in a hostile takeover wasn't a democratic process in the sense if they can manage to buy majority stake they get to have the company? Couldn't oracle influence the larger investors? It seems they would have more to gain from this?
ps: alot of questions because I'm no expert on this stuff.

[Henry Wong]

Originally posted by Chunnard Singh II:

What are outstanding shares? I thought in a hostile takeover wasn't a democratic process in the sense if they can manage to buy majority stake they get to have the company? Couldn't oracle influence the larger investors? It seems they would have more to gain from this?

Outstanding shares are shares of stock that is owned by investers. Shares of stock "owned" by the company doesn't count because the investers own the company, including the stock that it owns.

Larger investors are not easily influenced by short term gain. They could be fund managers with a good working relationship -- and like the long term prospects. They could be BEA partners with a working relationship. Just because you have tons of money doesn't mean you can force someone to sell -- or control them.

Now, if Oracle is willing to pay 2 or 3 times what BEA is worth, then that may influence some of them -- but then, Oracle will have to deal with its own investors, who don't want Oracle going into a bad deal. i.e. Hostile takeovers cost more than just money.

Henry
[ October 14, 2007: Message edited by: Henry Wong ]

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

Henry, how could you hijack an interesting thread about the future of the middle tier, and turn it into a dry and dull conversation about 'outstanding shares' and 'controlling interests.' This is a Java board, not an accounting board!

Seriously though, I'd like to see this happen. What is the current marketshare for BEA vs. WebSphere? I did a google search, but could only find 3 or 4 year old data. From what I saw, WebLogic was declining, and WebSphere was gaining, or at least, holding solid. That's a big change from when WebLogic was the only shop in town.

Sure, BEA turned them down, but that's a standard first move in a situation like this. Oracle fired the first salvo, and publicly, BEA stood tall. Still, I'm sure that there's alot of people in the BEA camp that are looking for a white knight to pull them out of all of their 'options and accounting problems', and help them win back the marketshare they are losing from IBM WebSphere and JBoss.

I'd like to see a big move here. IBM has totally dropped the ball with WebSphere, refusing to release WebSphere 7, but instead, releasing a 6.1 version, and feature packs with which nobody is willing to go into production. I mean, they released IRAD 7 without the ability to create EJB 3.0 components to be deployed to WebSphere 7, largely because WebSphere 7 doesn't exist, and perhaps, never will.

Who knows, maybe IBM will give up on WebSphere and just buy BEA out from under Oracle's feet? Unfortunately, such a move would put a big dent in the sales of my What is WebSphere? book.

-Cameron McKenzie
[ October 14, 2007: Message edited by: Cameron McKenzie ]

[Jignesh Patel]

Originally posted by Cameron McKenzie:

I'd like to see a big move here. IBM has totally dropped the ball with WebSphere, refusing to release WebSphere 7, but instead, releasing a 6.1 version, and feature packs with which nobody is willing to go into production. I mean, they released IRAD 7 without the ability to create EJB 3.0 components to be deployed to WebSphere 7, largely because WebSphere 7 doesn't exist, and perhaps, never will.

This is something new to know. Why IBM refused to releases Websphere 7??
When around 80% market is moving in the Websphere direction.

And for your guess of IBM buying BEA ---, I don't know why do they buy the weblogic, which is not as efficient as their technology.
So from technical point of IBM will not gain but loose, on the contrarary Oracle will gain a lot.

Yup it makes sense to buy BEA just to avoid competition from IBMs perspective. But, I don't know withoug seeing multiple advantages any company goes and buy other companies.

[Arvind Mahendra]

Originally posted by Jignesh Patel:
[QB]
And for your guess of IBM buying BEA ---, I don't know why do they buy the weblogic, which is not as efficient as their technology.
So from technical point of IBM will not gain but loose, on the contrarary Oracle will gain a lot.

I find weblogic to have the best tech support. and always at the bleeding edge. I also think BEA pays more attention to all its customers. I asked for a Trial of Rational Architect, and 10 weeks have passed and still nothing. I asked the same of the BEA server and within 5 days it was at my door step. The weblogic server also If Im not mistaken is supposed to be the fastest. BEA is losing market share because they aren't resorting to the kind of tactics that oracle and maybe even IBM? relies on like buying market share. In the long run this should help BEA. Oracle wouldn't want weblogic if it didn't think it was a fine product. As long as its in the top 3 everything should be OK. From an investor point of view though I think they would like to see the deal happen.

[Jignesh Patel]

Originally posted by Chunnard Singh II:


I find weblogic to have the best tech support. and always at the bleeding edge..I also think BEA pays more attention to all its customers. I asked for a Trial of Rational Architect, and 10 weeks have passed and still nothing. I asked the same of the BEA server and within 5 days it was at my door step. .

That's not true, ask them some technical question, not some basic questions, They have lots of bug when you work on portal technology or any other advance technology. They just can't compete with IBM.
Yes about bleeding edge, then IBM is the slowest but then BEA is not fastest. Look at JBoss, BEA just can't move at that pace.

Oracle wouldn't want weblogic if it didn't think it was a fine product. As long as its in the top 3 everything should be OK. From an investor point of view though I think they would like to see the deal happen

True it must be much better then Oracle App Server. And noway it is a bad product otherwise they must not be in top 3. But the question is in top 3 are they better then IBM and JBoss???

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

I was just being facetious about IBM not releasing WebSphere 7. I'm sure that one day it will be released.

(By the way, did you know that the word facetiously is the only word in the English language that has every vowel in order, with the exception of the vowel 'w', that is. And yes, 'w' is a vowel!)

I actually just read an article that said it would be released soon. Well, the article was dated January 2005, so that must mean it is just around the corner.

-Cameron McKenzie
[ October 14, 2007: Message edited by: Cameron McKenzie ]

[Paul Clapham]

Originally posted by Cameron McKenzie:
(By the way, did you know that the word facetiously is the only word in the English language that has every vowel in order, with the exception of the vowel 'w', that is. And yes, 'w' is a vowel!)

"You must have been drinking too much again, he said abstemiously."

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

I knew boasting it being the 'only' one would get me in trouble.

Still, yours still doesn't have a 'w'.

-Cameron McKenzie

[Henry Wong]

Sure, BEA turned them down, but that's a standard first move in a situation like this. Oracle fired the first salvo, and publicly, BEA stood tall. Still, I'm sure that there's alot of people in the BEA camp that are looking for a white knight to pull them out of all of their 'options and accounting problems', and help them win back the marketshare they are losing from IBM WebSphere and JBoss.

Sorry, but I am not too much of a fan of Websphere. IMHO, websphere seems to be the step child of other parts of IBM like their hardware divisions, DB2, and even to IGS. In fact, IMHO, websphere is a more loved child only to those dozens or so products that IBM has locked in their Tivoli dungeon.

If Oracle owns BEA, it will be a similar situation. I can't imagine that Weblogic will be more important than their DB. I certainly can't imagine that Weblogic will be more important than Oracle financials and the rest of the ERP/Supply Chain line.

Henry

[Ulf Dittmer]

Originally posted by Jignesh Patel:
When around 80% market is moving in the Websphere direction.

Can you point us to a source for that number, or tell us what exactly you mean by it? It seems questionable to me.

[Jignesh Patel]

Originally posted by Ulf Dittmer:

Can you point us to a source for that number, or tell us what exactly you mean by it? It seems questionable to me.

No I don't have source, becaues somebody who owns a consulting company and managing many consulting position in our state told me during our discussion. So if want to doubt that 80% is a true number? then I agree it
may not be true.
But just as a note, I work for one of the largest retail chain in US and they have websphere is a organizational standard. They try to put their new app on Websphere.

But here are the some link for 2001-2004 market share data and you can see how BEA is falling from 2001.

http://www.theserverside.com/news/thread.tss?thread_id=9680

http://www.theserverside.com/news/thread.tss?thread_id=25877
http://www.websphere-world.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1511
http://rmh.blogs.com/weblog/2006/05/bz_research_on_.html

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

Certainly an optimistic statistic to say 80% are moving in the WebSphere direction. Of course, seeing that WebSphere isn't at J2EE 1.5 yet in a full release, does that mean 80% of the industry are looking at going backwards as far as the J2EE version they're looking at? Clients not interested in the lastest standard certainly would be a good thing for IBM.

Regardless, those links hit the same sites I got when I did a marketshare search. The first link was 2001, the second was 2004, the third was 2004, and the fourth was December 2005, which is better than I could find, but still, somewhat dated. I really am curious as to what the latest numbers are? Funny that it's so hard to discover that info. It is interesting to see BEA slump from 41% in 2001 to 27% in 2005. Seriously, they need an Oracle takeover.

On the last link, I was VERY surprised to see JBoss pretty much tied with WebSphere, and WebLogic so far behind. Also, I never would have thought Oracle would be tied with BEA.

I know that Oracle will seel a solution stack, like their database, and package their app server with it. Then, they count the sale as a Oracle Server sale, despite the fact that it's just shelfware that nobody is using. All vendors do it I guess, but I wonder if it might explain the high placing of Oracle iAS?

# 37.2% - IBM Web Sphere
# 37.0% - JBoss Application Server
# 27.2% - BEA WebLogic
# 27.2% - Oracle 8iAS, 9iAS, 10gAS
# 19.7% - Sun Java Enterprise System
# 6.8% - Macromedia/Adobe JRun
# 3.9% - Borland AppServer or Enterprise Server
# 2.1% - Orion Server
# 2.0% - Sybase EAserver
# 1.8% - Apple WebObjects
# 1.4% - Novell eXtend
# 0.9% - IONA Orbix or ASP

Java J2EE Server Marketshare and Penetration - IBM BEA JBOSS ORACLE SUN JRun Borland Orion Sybase Apple? Novell Iona

-Cameron McKenzie
[ October 14, 2007: Message edited by: Cameron McKenzie ]

[kri shan]

HP is the main competitor for buying BEA. IBM too. Tough battle is going on. We will see...Who will win?

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

I can't see BEA fitting in with HP like it would with Oracle. How does WebLogic help you sell an overprices printer.

Oracle will win this, that's my bet. I'm playing the market with that in mind right now. Of course, I usually lose when I play the market. We'll see.

-Cameron McKenzie

[Arvind Mahendra]

It wont. . no reason to say that. It just wont.

[Mark Spritzler]

Yeah, I was quite shocked that you guys completely forgot that JBoss was one of the top three.

I would have mentioned it myself, but would be too biased.

Mark

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

I'm not surprised that it was in the top three. What surprised me was that it was number 2! I thought BEA was much further ahead of JBoss than that. Looks like JBoss has really eaten away at their marketshare. The only solution? Join the dark side with Darth Larry.

-Cameron McKenzie

[Arvind Mahendra]

Oracle already has what BEA offers. They wont do it. not yet. And they shld have their hands full with all the stuff they've been buying over the years.

[Jignesh Patel]

Originally posted by Mark Spritzler:
Yeah, I was quite shocked that you guys completely forgot that JBoss was one of the top three.

I would have mentioned it myself, but would be too biased.

No way we can forget JBoss :roll: . See my previous postings. One of the extract here.

True it must be much better then Oracle App Server. And noway it is a bad product otherwise they must not be in top 3. But the question is in top 3 are they better then IBM and JBoss???

[Joanne Neal]

Originally posted by Cameron McKenzie:
with the exception of the vowel 'w', that is. And yes, 'w' is a vowel!)

I know that y is sometimes considered to be a vowel, but I've never heard of w being thought of as one. Have you got any links to back this up, or were you just not being abstemious again

[Bear Bibeault]

It's a pedantic point. If you want to be picky about it, no letter is a vowel -- only sounds are vowels. And under that "teaching method", the sounds that "w" makes can sometimes be a vowel sound just like "y".

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

If you've ever played a crwth in a cwm, you wouldn't be so doubtful about 'w' being a vowel. It's largely a Welsh influence.

In both words, the w sounds like a soft 'o', as opposed to a 'y'. They sound like they might have a spelling of krooth or koom.

Yes, w is a vowel!!!

-Cameron McKenzie
[ October 15, 2007: Message edited by: Cameron McKenzie ]

[Joanne Neal]

Thanks for that Cameron. Interesting stuff. That can be my 'You learn something every day' for today

[Sandip Sankeshwar]

JBoss is now purchased by Red Hat,right?
Why can't BEAor IBM guys copy and implement JBoss if JBoss is efficient? :roll: I called JBoss Bangalore office and they are not picking the phone.I will go this week for asking them about training.

[Paul Sturrock]

Why can't BEAor IBM guys copy and implement JBoss if JBoss is efficient

Because that would infringe the JBoss licence.

[Pradeep bhatt]

Originally posted by Sandip Sankeshwar:
JBoss is now purchased by Red Hat,right?
Why can't BEAor IBM guys copy and implement JBoss if JBoss is efficient? :roll: I called JBoss Bangalore office and they are not picking the phone.I will go this week for asking them about training.

Training is really expensive .

[Pradeep bhatt]

BEA has good documentation Oracle is horrible. BEA conducts lot of free developer seminars I havent seen many from Oracle and most of them are paid. I still have nice pen given at a BEA dev 2 dev conf last year.

[Arvind Mahendra]

Originally posted by Sandip Sankeshwar:
I will go this week for asking them about training.

So basically you're going to ask them to read you a book

[Pradeep bhatt]

Originally posted by Chunnard Singh II:


So basically you're going to ask them to read you a book

He is joking about the training.

[Arvind Mahendra]

Originally posted by Pradip Bhat:


He is joking about the training.

How can we be sure about that?

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

It is my opinion that many of the big players in the J2EE industry do a really dismal job of documentation.

I just spent a week failing to install product xyz on aix. I followed the 20 pages of instruction to the tee, but kept getting errors nobody could answer. Finally, I got in touch with someone on the inside and he said "you're not using the installation instructions to install that are you? that won't work."

I was then given a 100 page 'confidential' document that explains how to really install it.

Anyways, maybe that lack of documentation will open up a little niche in the industry for someone like me to fill it. I'd love to quite programming and do writing full time.

-Cameron McKenzie

[Cameron Wallace McKenzie]

BEA just asked for $21 a share. Will Oracle bite or rebuff?

They're still dancing.

-Cameron

[Peter Rooke]

I think this will be bad for the industry, when Oracle get hold of WebLogic. What happens to people who use BEA products on other databases? I guess they will be moving over to Oracle. Thankfully - JBoss now provides an alternative.

[Peter Rooke]

Oracle walks away from BEA offer

[Rambo Prasad]

I think Big companies should stop this acquisition spree...It reduces the choice of companies for job hoppers..

[Ulf Dittmer]

Originally posted by Rambo Prasad:
I think Big companies should stop this acquisition spree...It reduces the choice of companies for job hoppers..

I doubt that's true, but I would certainly like to see job-hopping itself reduced.