Win a copy of The Way of the Web Tester: A Beginner's Guide to Automating Tests this week in the Testing forum!

# Who is the luckiest guy on the ranch?

Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand
Posts: 426
Hi,

Who is the luckiest guy on the Ranch?

I have been trying the state lottery for 8 years now but the highest that I have won so far is 50\$.
(P.S I converted that to dollar..so do your math.. )

I am getting .. when will I win the jackpot?

I am curious if somebody has far greater win than what I have?

On the other hand.. I joined the ranch on 2007 and I managed to win Free Book thrice? I am that lucky here I think...
I bet somebody has won several times.

To Sum Up:
State Lottery = 50\$
Javaranch Book Promo = 3

Whats your's buddy?

Bear Bibeault
Author and ninkuma
Marshal
Posts: 65278
95
• 3
Lottery, a tax on people who are bad at math.

Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand
Posts: 426
Lottery, a tax on people who are bad at math.

lol...

Common Bear... it doesnt hurt to dream big sometimes...

Deepak Bala
Bartender
Posts: 6663
5
It has to do with probabilities. The probability that you will win a state lottery is 1 : (several hundred thousands). The probability that you will win a book at JR is 1 : (several hundreds). You are more probable to win a book than win a lottery.

If you want better odds, you can always rob a bank. You will get a lot of money, but there is the reduced probability of you making it out alive ;)

Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand
Posts: 426

If you want better odds

Speaking of Odds.. it seems that the odds is never in my favor for some time?

Jesper de Jong
Java Cowboy
Saloon Keeper
Posts: 15570
46
Last year I won twice: € 260 and € 100. A ticket for the lottery costs € 15, so that's enough to play for free for 2 years. This month I won € 7,50, only half of what a ticket costs.

My parents have been playing in the same lottery for 40 years or so but never won as much as I did last year...

Joanne Neal
Rancher
Posts: 3742
16
Mark Reyes wrote:I have been trying the state lottery for 8 years now but the highest that I have won so far is 50\$.
(P.S I converted that to dollar..so do your math.. )

To do the math we need to know what sort of dollars you converted to - Australian, Canadian, Carribean. There are probably other countries that use dollars as well.

Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand
Posts: 426
To do the math we need to know what sort of dollars you converted to - Australian, Canadian, Carribean. There are probably other countries that use dollars as well.

...ooops my bad.. its American Dollar...

My parents have been playing in the same lottery for 40 years or so but never won as much as I did last year...

I hope I wont wait this long....

fred rosenberger
lowercase baba
Bartender
Posts: 12234
36
Bear Bibeault wrote:Lottery, a tax on people who are bad at math.

See...I disagree with this. I play the lottery, but only when the expected value is over the price of the ticket. I think I understand math very well.

dennis deems
Ranch Hand
Posts: 808
fred rosenberger wrote:
Bear Bibeault wrote:Lottery, a tax on people who are bad at math.

See...I disagree with this. I play the lottery, but only when the expected value is over the price of the ticket. I think I understand math very well.

What do you mean by "expected value"?

Ernest Friedman-Hill
author and iconoclast
Marshal
Posts: 24212
35
Dennis Deems wrote:
What do you mean by "expected value"?

Basically it's the probability of winning times the size of the jackpot, less the cost of the ticket. If your chances of winning are one in a million, but the jackpot is three million, then the expectation value is (\$3,000,000/1,000,000) - \$1 = \$2. That's a worthwhile bet. It also doesn't happen much.

Bartender
Posts: 3479
Try Pitcairn Island lottery. Your odds are 1/50

Greg Charles
Sheriff
Posts: 2994
12
• I've won the book promotion twice in my decade here.
• I think I won two dollars in the California lottery when it was new (30 years ago). I haven't really played since then.
• My mom won a car CD player as a door prize once, and gave it to me. (That counts right?)
• I know how to spell possessive pronouns like yours, hers, its, ...
•
Mike Simmons
Ranch Hand
Posts: 3090
14
Ernest Friedman-Hill wrote:
Dennis Deems wrote:
What do you mean by "expected value"?

Basically it's the probability of winning times the size of the jackpot, less the cost of the ticket. If your chances of winning are one in a million, but the jackpot is three million, then the expectation value is (\$3,000,000/1,000,000) - \$1 = \$2. That's a worthwhile bet. It also doesn't happen much.

The calculation also needs to consider (a) the effect of income tax on that payoff, and (b) the possibility that the payoff will be split among N other people who also picked the same numbers (or whatever the lottery mechanism is). The chances of this are somewhat low normally, but it's more likely to happen when there's a really high payoff, which draws many more players than you'd normally see. So even when the expected payoff supposedly justifies the ticket cost, it probably doesn't.

Ernest Friedman-Hill
author and iconoclast
Marshal
Posts: 24212
35
• 2
Who is the luckiest person on the Ranch? Well, I married my wife.

Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand
Posts: 426
Who is the luckiest person on the Ranch? Well, I married my wife.