Win a copy of TDD for a Shopping Website LiveProject this week in the Testing forum!

# Bhau Mhatre

Ranch Hand
since Jun 11, 2003
Cows and Likes
Cows
0
In last 30 days
0
Total given
0
Likes
0
0
Total given
0
Given in last 30 days
0
Scavenger Hunt
Ranch Hand Scavenger Hunt
Greenhorn Scavenger Hunt

## Recent posts by Bhau Mhatre

Ernest Friedman-Hill:
If I were to go body shopping, I'd get one that was about 20 years younger and had better teeth. Also more hair on the head and less in the nose.

But then you could be accused of age discrimination..
16 years ago
Hu Jiabao: Despite of being 32% illeteracy,abject poverty its surprising to see Indian flock towards watching these movies.This kind madness is only in cities or even every illeterate villager is also obsessed with movie where actor runs behind the actress behind the trees possibly in Switzerland?

I think it's probably 'Because of', not 'Despite'.
Surprising? Hardly.
16 years ago
JY--- You did. But if you know this, then why did you say ...
Would you prefer "severely misguided" or "flat-out wrong"? Or did you mean something different from the way I interpreted your statement? The rest of your post seems to make sense, so maybe there's a misunderstanding somewhere here...

BM--- Since no other information was given as a starting point, I supposed we could
1. Either use 1/2 as a starting point (neither in favor of a hit nor in favor of a miss) if we were to calculate further for five or ten chances.
(I was thinking more about the binary nature of the outcome. If the event had three possible outcomes, I would have chosen 1/3 as a starting point in the absence of information about external factors.)
2. Or not calculate at all.
but certainly not 1/5 if that was arrived at based on the number of bullets.
17 years ago
JY--- That's ludicrous.
BM---

VS--- You have 5 chances (i.e. five bullets). Probability of hiting bottle on every chance will be 1/5;
JY--- I'm not sure what Vikrama is thinking; the statement about 1/5 probability may be faulty reasoning (based on there being 5 bullets, which is irrelevant for each single shot), or it may simply be one fo the givens of the problem (the probability is 1/5 because Vikrama said it is).
BM--- Ah! I assumed Vikrama arrived at 1/5 by faulty reasoning. I did not think of the possibility that it may be just one of the givens of the problem. My bad, if it is the later case.

JY--- That's ludicrous.
BM---

JY--- However Bhau Martre's statement here is definitely in error. You can not assume that just because there are two possibilities (hit or miss) the chance of each is 1/2. What about the many other variables: size of target, range, skill of shooter, accuracy of gun, vision of shooter, etc? All these have a significant influence on the chance of success, which may be much higher or much lower than 1/2.
BM---Yes, I understand that. Randomly picking a ball from a bag of two is different from shooting a gun. Didn't I mention the distance, wind, speed, and direction?

JY--- That's ludicrous.
BM---

BM---The more I think about it, the more it seems like there is no starting point for such a case. The probability, considering the skills, size, range, must be a given to start with. Is that correct?

JY--- That's ludicrous.
BM---
[ April 19, 2005: Message edited by: Bhau Mhatre ]
17 years ago
Vikrama Sanjeeva--- But what about the "number of successfull chances" ? Will it increase?

Yes. Probability of a an outcome increases with the number of tries.
If x is the probability of a positive outcome in one single task and N is the number of tries, then
P_always = x^N
P_never = (1-x)^N
P_alteast_once = 1 - P_never

x being less than 1, powers of x get smaller and smaller.
As N increases, P_always decreases. It gets "more and more improbable" for the outcome to be always positive every time.
As N increases, P_never decreases too. It gets "more and more improbable" for the outcome to be always negative every time.
But as N increases, P_atleast_once increases.

That is, if you keep repeating the same task over and over again, the probability of a positive outcome atleast once increases.
And the probability of a negative outcome atleast once also increases.

Vikrama Sanjeeva--- If I am not geting u wrong, then consider this E.g: I asked u to fire a bottle placed on a top of pillar. Distance b/w u and pillar is 0.25KM.

First of all, the distance information is useful only if you provide a relation between the probability and the distance. E.g. P is inversely proportional to the sum of three times square root of distance and the tan of the angle of the wind and the direction of the bullet, keeping the speed of the wind constant, etc. or something like that. In the above case, the distance is not needed so long as it is within the possible range of shooting

Vikrama Sanjeeva--- You have 5 chances (i.e. five bullets). Probability of hiting bottle on every chance will be 1/5;

Second, how did you achieve that number? Probability of hiting bottle on ANY given chance for every chance will always be 1/2. That is, you either hit, or you miss.

Vikrama Sanjeeva--- but what about the number of chances of hiting bottle? Will it be different if you have 10 bullets (chances)?

Yes. If you keep shooting day in and day out, the chances of hitting more times increases. For this, we don't need the mathematical knowledge of probability, do we? Ask the telemarketers. Or the kids persuading their parents for more toys. They know this well

 That kind of contradicts my previous statement -- "Probability does not increases with repetition. " So I'll try and rephrase it:
Probability of an outcome for an event does not increase with repetition when each occurance of the event is considered separately.
Probability of an outcome happening atleast once does increase with increase in the number of chances taken togather.
[ April 19, 2005: Message edited by: Bhau Mhatre ]
17 years ago
Vikrama Sanjeeva--- Suppose probability of mistake by P1 in doing task T1 is "X".

Jayesh Lalwani--- Mistakes M1 = 400*X

Hmm, probability does not increase with repetition, does it?

E.g. Out of 100 balls in a box (1 red, 99 blue), the probablity of picking up a red ball randomly is 1/100.
If you repeat this process 400 times, the probability does not increase to 4.

Similarly, if you consider each individual "doing of the task" separately, then each time the probability of mistake is X. This will never change.
And the probability of NOT making a mistake = (1-X)

Repeating 400 times, the probability of 'always making' a mistake is (X)*(X)*(X)...400 times
Repeating 400 times, the probability of 'always not making' a mistake is (1-X)*(1-X)*(1-X)...400 times

M1_always = x^400
M1_never = (1-x)^400
M1_alteast_once = 1 - M1_never

For two people, suppose
M21 = probability of mistake by first guy and
M22 = probability of mistake by second guy

M21_always = y^200
M21_never = (1-y)^200
M21_alteast_once = 1 - M21_never

M22_always = z^200
M22_never = (1-z)^200
M22_alteast_once = 1 - M22_never

M21_alteast_once OR M22_alteast_once = (1 - M21_never) + (1 - M22_never) = (2 - ((1-y)^200 + (1-z)^200))

For M1 > M21+M22

1 - ((1-x)^400) > 2 - ((1-y)^200 + (1-z)^200)
((1-x)^400) > 1 - ((1-y)^200 + (1-z)^200)

((1-y)^200 + (1-z)^200) + ((1-x)^400) > 1

am lost here...
17 years ago
Arjun Shastry: So what are the questions that should be asked?

Why don't you ask her some of the questions you do in the "programming diversion" forum? May be you can judge her from the way she approaches the problem It's a high risk suggestion though. She might get scared and run away thinking you are a nerd or a geek. On the up side, she might get impressed and you'll have your day.

Another suggestion- Tell her a few jokes of varying intelligence- from siliest/stupidest to highly intelligent, rating 0 to 10 (rating is yours of course). Then depending on her smile, grin, or laughter for each joke, you'll probably get the idea of compatibility (sense of humor, general knowlwdge, ..). Hope that helps
17 years ago
john wesley: Instead of talking about what I said you, guys have drilled down to the origins and different forms of dowry and made a mini thesis out of it. While I was just talking about the current monstrous manifestation of dowry in India.

Aaw okey, I thought my earlier post pretty much agreed that the tradtion exists. Nope? However, it exist in varrying forms, sizes, and shapes. In contrast to the simplified scene that you described earlier using six characters.

Just wanted to add some color to a black and white discussion.

K Maya: ...
Manish Hatwalne: Why wait for change of heart of these "greedy, dowry seeking, insesitive" Indian men?

Hey people, since when did dowry turn into a men v/s women thing? In almost all dowry related crimes you will find that the victim's mother-in-law was the main culprit. Tihar Jail in Delhi (one of the most famous jails in the country) has a separate "mother-in-law" wing for women who have harassed and even killed their daughters-in-law. Many of these women are convicted and serving life long sentences for murder. So it is not as simple a men v/s women problem as it sounds.
17 years ago
john wesley: I wonder why Indians get so alarmed by the word dowry, when infact they are neck deep in it.
The reaction usually depends on which part of the country (city/village/town) he/she is from.

For the dowry itself: My best guess is that the tradition probably started as gifts hundreds of years ago. As time passed by, whenever the bridegroom's parents were more powerful in the society, they demanded more gifts from the brides' knowing the family will be more than happy if their daughter could be accepted in a higher social family. (Remember, polygamy was pretty much okay in those days, and so the groom would not mind marrying someone from lower class because that would be just one of his wives)

On the other hand, if the groom was from a socially equal class/caste, chances and size of dowry was probably less. In other situations where some communities were very closely knit, the grooms would not marry someone outside the community. Shortage of women in these communities may not help much with the dowry.

And if a guy and a girl got attracted towards each other and were from socially different status, then they will sometimes have to beg/convince/fight or whatever it takes to get married. Sometimes fight with the girls's parents, or the guy's, or both. Forget the dowry.

Side info: In some places it's the men who go and live with their inlaws. And may be even pay the bride. It is in very few communities though.

---------
Manish Hatwalne: Dowry, parents acompanying daughter while meeting, gotra etc etc... almost seems like a story from another century! Have you guys travelled back in time by any chance and communicating all this from 18th century?

Well, you don't need to travel back in time. The country as a whole, we live in many centuries at the same time. You just have to visit different places to experience different time-frames, I think.

[EDIT: Oops, I see you posted few minutes earlier and I missed it while I was still typing.]

---------
There were probably many other communities outside India where dowries were practiced. According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dowry - "Dowries were also important social components of Roman marriages."

Did you know section:
When princess Catherine de Braganza of Portugal married Charles II of England, the king was given the islands of Mumbadevi/Bom Bahia/Bombay/Mumbai as dowry.
[ February 15, 2005: Message edited by: Bhau Mhatre ]
17 years ago
Matt Fielder: This is a strange topic. Not because of its topic, but rather because of the number of variables that we could look at.

There was a nice informative thread a while back. Wish it was closed (instead of deleted ) so that we could refer to it later. It made me wonder if the very concept of 'police' should be considered unconstitutional and an infringment of individual rights!
17 years ago
Nick George: Bleh... tell that to the Native Americans

Ouch!
(I was comparing the "dates" selected for waving rather than the "action" itself. And from the perspective of the migrants not the natives.)

May be, this year, they can select their own president and declare November 6th as the Australian flag waving day? That will be a little less harsh on the natives, hopefully.
17 years ago
What's Australia day for? Never heard of Australian revolution or Australian war of Independence

Isn't there a difference between the "4th of July American flag waving" and "26th January Australian flag waving"
One being end of colonialization, another for the begning of it?

Nice co-incidence about 26th Jan, BTW.
17 years ago

Originally posted by Mapraputa Is:
San Fracisco 292 bus from the airport to the transbay terminal will cost you \$1,25. The same bus going the same route in the opposite direction costs \$2,50. Proof.

Any ideas why?

[ January 21, 2005: Message edited by: Mapraputa Is ]

You seriously asking the question or testing our browsing capabilities?
The schedules show that route starting from "Mission St & Transbay" is a loop.
My guess: From airport to transbay is second half of the route and hence half the price?
17 years ago
If you are skiing for the first time and you are already above 25-30 years old, then take extra care of your knees. They'll be under heavy pressure from your own weight. Not kidding! If it hurts then stop right away. You can enjoy the cable rides though
17 years ago
One of my books on Buddhism says that by sitting meditation one becomes a sitting Buddha. That is to say, you a not likely to be enlightened if you put an emphasis on the sitting itself, or where you sit.

That the emphasis of the message was on the act of sitting or on the place of sitting seems to be an interpretation of the one who is conquered by the mayas of known world.

That the essence of the message was to conquer oneself as the next step could be an interpretation for the one who has already conquered the known world and is willing to go beyond.
17 years ago